Game plan

Denis Istomin v Nikolay Davydenko

Every number combines what Denis Istomin does well with what Nikolay Davydenko allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Denis Istomin wins, best of 3 18%90%: 6%–38% · best of 5: 12%

Serve points won 57.8% / 65.2% Denis / Nikolay · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 14%serve 57.3% / 65.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Denis Istomin's record against Nikolay Davydenko's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +4.5 on serve, +5.1 on return vs expectation (379 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Denis	Nikolay
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.13 better than 67%	−0.01 ±0.06 better than 56%
Shot selection	−0.41 ±0.13 better than 16%	+0.02 ±0.07 better than 54%
Execution	+0.13 ±1.35 better than 73%	+0.14 ±0.29 better than 74%
Points left on the table	2.37 ±0.24 lower than 76%	2.24 ±0.09 lower than 89%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Denis Istomin serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Denis wins	v Nikolay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	74%	72%	73.3%±6.4	57% ▲
Body	10%	57%	62%	55.9%±11.5	0% ▼
T	46%	71%	73%	68.6%±6.7	43% ▼

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Denis wins	v Nikolay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	71%	69%	67.0%±7.2	36% ▼
Body	7%	62%	61%	59.4%±13.4	6%
T	45%	70%	69%	66.3%±7.0	58% ▲

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Nikolay Davydenko serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nikolay wins	v Denis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	70%	77%	74.2%±6.4	51% ▲
Body	12%	60%	63%	59.4%±11.6	0% ▼
T	51%	71%	76%	71.6%±7.0	49% ▼

Optimal v Denis Istomin: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nikolay wins	v Denis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	67%	81%	76.4%±6.8	63% ▲
Body	10%	66%	60%	62.8%±11.5	0% ▼
T	40%	68%	75%	71.8%±7.4	37% ▼

Optimal v Denis Istomin: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Denis Istomin returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
FH through the middle	34%	+4.3	−0.3	+0.4	+4.3±2.5
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−3.9	−1.0	−3.2±3.8
FH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−2.3	+2.2	−4.2±2.3
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−0.5	−0.7	+4.3±3.7
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.3	−0.7	+0.4	−4.6±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.1±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (167 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
BH through the middle	32%	+6.4	+0.8	+2.6	+9.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	±0.0	+0.3	+9.1±3.0
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.4	+2.6	−2.0±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	±0.0	+4.8	+5.3±2.5
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−3.0	+1.2	+2.5±3.8

Lean BH through the middle: +3.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (154 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
FH crosscourt	41%	−0.2	−0.3	−1.9	−2.5±3.8
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	−1.2	+0.2	−4.4±2.3
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	+0.9	−0.1	−1.1±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.3±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (51 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.9	+1.2	+1.6	−0.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	+1.1	±0.0	+2.1±2.9
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−0.1	+1.5	+1.2±3.7
BH slice through the middle	6%	−11.3	−0.5	±0.0	−11.7±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Nikolay Davydenko returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	±0.0	+1.3	+5.6±2.4
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	−1.1	−1.0	−0.4±3.9
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−2.3	+0.4	+3.6±3.8
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	−1.2	+1.0	−4.4±2.1
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−0.1	+0.9	−3.5±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +3.2±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1320 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+0.5	−1.3	+5.6±2.3
BH crosscourt	21%	+8.8	−0.6	+1.7	+9.9±3.1
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.7	+0.2	+8.1±3.9
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.4	+0.2	−5.4±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−2.2	+0.4	−1.3±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1258 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	+1.9	+0.2	−1.4±2.6
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	−0.2	−0.5	−0.9±4.1
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	−2.6	−0.6	−4.9±4.6
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−0.1	+0.6	+0.6±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.6	−1.4±2.1
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.0	+0.5	+0.6	+2.2±2.6
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	−0.7	+1.1	+0.2±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1069 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Denis Istomin

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+4.9±2.7	+1.6	+3.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.4±4.2	+2.6	+0.8
BH to their backhand · return	+3.2±3.7	+1.9	+1.3
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.4±4.1	+4.9	−2.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.1±3.0	+1.5	−1.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.2±4.5	+0.1	−0.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.6±2.5	−4.0	−1.6
FH to their backhand · return	−4.1±4.9	−3.1	−1.0
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.9±5.9	−2.9	±0.0
BH to the middle · rally	−2.0±2.2	−2.4	+0.3
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.9±4.4	+0.1	−2.0

Nikolay Davydenko

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+4.9±3.0	+1.6	+3.3
FH to the middle · rally	+2.5±2.5	−0.2	+2.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.5±2.9	−1.0	+3.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.5±4.9	−0.1	+2.6
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±2.9	−0.8	+2.8
FH to their backhand · return +1	+1.3±4.8	−0.3	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.5±4.6	−2.6	−3.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.1±3.9	−1.9	−4.3
FH to their backhand · return	−3.6±4.5	−1.7	−1.9
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.4±3.4	−5.3	+2.8
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±2.8	−0.6	+0.1

Against Nikolay Davydenko-like opponents

Denis Istomin v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.9%	30.9%
Players most similar to Nikolay Davydenko	1	62.4%	35.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Borna Coric, Fernando Verdasco, Viktor Troicki, David Nalbandian, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.