Game plan

Gilles Simon v Tommy Paul

Every number combines what Gilles Simon does well with what Tommy Paul allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Gilles Simon wins, best of 3 36%90%: 24%–50% · best of 5: 33%

Serve points won 58.2% / 61.0% Gilles / Tommy · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 32%serve 57.9% / 61.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Gilles Simon's record against Tommy Paul's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +4.3 on serve, +5.4 on return vs expectation (259 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Gilles	Tommy
Direction choice	−0.03 ±0.06 better than 49%	+0.09 ±0.06 better than 80%
Shot selection	−0.07 ±0.08 better than 44%	+0.11 ±0.11 better than 67%
Execution	+1.17 ±0.30 better than 97%	+0.22 ±0.32 better than 76%
Points left on the table	2.26 ±0.09 lower than 88%	2.33 ±0.11 lower than 81%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Gilles Simon serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Gilles wins	v Tommy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	66%	72%	64.2%±3.6	66% ▲
Body	7%	57%	61%	55.0%±8.5	0% ▼
T	41%	72%	73%	70.1%±4.3	34% ▼

Optimal v Tommy Paul: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Gilles wins	v Tommy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	67%	73%	68.2%±4.4	39%
Body	9%	64%	63%	64.3%±7.7	22% ▲
T	52%	65%	65%	57.8%±4.2	39% ▼

Optimal v Tommy Paul: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Tommy Paul serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tommy wins	v Gilles	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	72%	72%	71.3%±3.6	46%
Body	14%	67%	55%	58.8%±7.3	1% ▼
T	40%	77%	76%	78.0%±3.6	53% ▲

Optimal v Gilles Simon: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tommy wins	v Gilles	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	66%	70%	62.6%±4.0	35% ▼
Body	14%	64%	62%	62.6%±8.1	14%
T	38%	70%	69%	67.9%±4.2	51% ▲

Optimal v Gilles Simon: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Gilles Simon returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	+2.2	+0.7	+7.2±1.6
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+2.3	+0.1	+7.9±3.4
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	+1.1	−0.9	+1.9±3.5
FH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+0.1	+0.7	−3.5±2.1
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	−3.6	+0.8	−7.2±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1104 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+3.1	+1.6	+11.1±1.6
BH crosscourt	32%	+8.8	+2.3	+2.4	+13.5±2.3
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+3.3	−1.5	+6.0±4.0
BH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	−0.4	+1.0	−3.7±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−4.2	+0.6	−3.1±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (935 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
FH through the middle	55%	−3.5	+1.7	+0.5	−1.3±2.1
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	−1.1	+1.7	+0.3±3.8
FH down the line	10%	−1.8	−0.5	+0.1	−2.2±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (294 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
BH crosscourt	44%	+1.0	+2.0	+0.4	+3.4±2.1
BH through the middle	36%	−2.9	+1.5	±0.0	−1.4±1.7
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	−0.7	−0.7	−1.6±4.5
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.8	+0.5	−1.6±2.0
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	+1.0	+1.7	+3.2±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (719 returns charted)

Tommy Paul returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gilles	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.3	+2.5	+3.6	+10.4±1.6
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	+3.0	+2.8	+7.5±3.2
FH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	−0.5	+0.9	−3.8±2.0
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	+0.6	+3.9	+9.9±3.3
FH slice down the line	9%	−4.3	+2.6	−0.1	−1.8±3.0

Lean FH through the middle: +4.6±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1482 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gilles	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+2.6	+2.5	+11.5±1.8
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+1.4	+4.0	+14.2±2.8
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−1.3	+3.5	−2.0±1.9
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−2.0	+2.3	+4.6±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−3.0	+1.8	−0.6±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1291 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gilles	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	+0.6	−0.4	−3.3±2.4
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	+2.4	+1.7	+3.8±3.8
FH down the line	22%	−1.8	+0.5	+1.5	+0.3±4.2
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	+0.5	±0.0	−12.2±1.3
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−12.5	+0.3	±0.0	−12.2±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (401 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gilles	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+2.1	+2.1	+5.3±2.1
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	+2.3	+2.4	+1.8±1.7
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	+4.3	+1.3	+5.5±4.2
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	+0.5	−0.4	−2.8±2.1
BH slice through the middle	1%	−11.3	−1.7	+1.7	−11.4±2.1

Lean BH down the line: +1.7±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (825 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Gilles Simon

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to their backhand · rally	+7.4±4.8	+5.3	+2.1
BH to their backhand · return	+6.4±2.1	+3.6	+2.8
FH slice to their forehand · rally	+6.0±5.4	+3.2	+2.8
BH to the middle · return	+4.6±1.5	+3.4	+1.3
FH to the middle · return	+3.8±1.6	+2.6	+1.2
FH to the middle · rally	+3.7±1.3	+2.4	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	−5.0±2.9	−3.0	−2.0
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.3±2.8	−3.6	+0.3
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−3.1±7.7	−3.5	+0.4
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−2.1±8.5	−2.3	+0.2
FH slice to the middle · rally	−1.1±3.3	+3.1	−4.2

Tommy Paul

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+7.9±1.7	+3.9	+4.1
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+6.7±8.0	+7.0	−0.2
Smash to their backhand · rally	+6.4±6.8	+2.9	+3.6
FH to their forehand · return	+6.3±3.6	+2.4	+3.9
BH to the middle · return	+4.9±1.6	+2.8	+2.1
BH to their backhand · return	+4.5±2.2	+2.5	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−5.9±5.1	−0.7	−5.2
FH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.3±5.6	−0.5	−4.8
FH slice to the middle · rally	−3.1±3.7	−3.9	+0.8
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−2.6±8.0	−0.2	−2.4
BH slice to the middle · return +1	−2.3±3.1	−5.1	+2.8

Against Tommy Paul-like opponents

Gilles Simon v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.7%	38.1%
Players most similar to Tommy Paul	2	63.6%	46.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Roman Safiullin, Fabio Fognini, Borna Coric, David Goffin, Kei Nishikori, Lloyd Harris, Magnus Norman. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.