Game plan

Guillermo Coria v Novak Djokovic

Every number combines what Guillermo Coria does well with what Novak Djokovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Guillermo Coria wins, best of 3 28%90%: 16%–45% · best of 5: 24%

Serve points won 56.9% / 61.3% Guillermo / Novak · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 28%serve 56.9% / 61.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Guillermo Coria's record against Novak Djokovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Guillermo	Novak
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.16 better than 60%	+0.04 ±0.02 better than 70%
Shot selection	−0.12 ±0.21 better than 37%	+0.04 ±0.03 better than 58%
Execution	+0.97 ±0.53 better than 95%	+1.17 ±0.10 better than 97%
Points left on the table	2.43 ±0.21 lower than 70%	2.24 ±0.03 lower than 89%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Guillermo Coria serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Guillermo wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	64%	69%	58.9%±4.3	66% ▲
Body	10%	71%	58%	66.3%±8.1	10%
T	37%	68%	71%	64.3%±5.7	24% ▼

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.2±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Guillermo wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	62%	69%	57.8%±4.3	54%
Body	12%	63%	57%	57.0%±7.8	0% ▼
T	33%	63%	69%	59.5%±5.6	46% ▲

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Novak Djokovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v Guillermo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	69%	70.4%±4.4	59% ▲
Body	9%	67%	55%	59.4%±9.0	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	70%	71.5%±4.4	41% ▼

Optimal v Guillermo Coria: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v Guillermo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	74%	65%	66.0%±4.4	47% ▼
Body	9%	63%	65%	64.8%±9.5	0% ▼
T	40%	73%	74%	75.1%±4.8	53% ▲

Optimal v Guillermo Coria: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Guillermo Coria returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	−0.6	−0.4	+3.3±1.9
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.5	+0.6	+0.6	+6.6±3.1
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	±0.0	−0.2	+1.5±3.3
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	+0.9	+1.0	−2.3±1.8
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.3	±0.0	+2.7	−1.7±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (384 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.4	−1.8	+0.5	+5.1±1.6
BH crosscourt	33%	+8.8	+0.1	+0.7	+9.6±2.3
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+0.5	+0.3	+5.0±3.5
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.7	+0.5	−5.4±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−3.1	+1.0	−1.7±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (481 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.1	+0.3	−2.1±2.1
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+3.4	−1.6	+1.6±3.3
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	+0.4	−2.6	−3.9±3.1
BH through the middle	4%	+0.1	+0.3	+0.6	+1.0±0.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (139 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.0	−0.1	+0.9	+1.7±2.1
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	+2.5	+0.6	+0.2±1.6
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−1.1	±0.0	−1.3±3.8
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.6	+0.3	−2.1±1.6
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	−0.9	−1.6	−1.9±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (399 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Novak Djokovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guillermo	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.5	+1.7	+6.4±1.8
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+1.9	+1.8	+5.4±3.1
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.3	+2.0	+7.9±3.0
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+1.5	−0.6	−3.3±1.7
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+1.4	−0.1	−3.0±2.4
BH inside-in	0%	+7.7	+2.5	+1.2	+11.4±3.3

Lean BH inside-in: +6.1±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guillermo	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	+1.0	+7.9±1.6
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+1.4	+1.2	+11.4±2.1
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.2	+1.4	−3.1±1.9
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.2	+1.6	+8.0±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.0	+4.0	+3.5±2.4
FH inside-out	0%	+8.6	+1.3	+1.8	+11.7±3.4

Lean FH inside-out: +5.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guillermo	Value
FH through the middle	54%	−3.5	+1.3	+1.3	−0.8±2.0
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+1.5	+3.0	+2.8±3.5
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	+1.5	+3.1	+4.4±3.5
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	−1.2	+0.3	−0.8±2.1
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	−0.4	−0.3	+0.2±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guillermo	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	+1.4	−0.2	+2.3±2.4
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.3	−1.9±1.9
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+2.0	−0.3	+1.4±3.9
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	−0.9	+1.3	−2.5±2.3
FH inside-out	1%	+1.0	+0.1	+3.0	+4.1±3.6
FH inside-in	0%	+0.6	+1.5	+3.1	+5.1±4.2

Lean FH inside-in: +5.0±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Guillermo Coria

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+7.2±4.4	+5.3	+1.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.5±3.2	+3.3	+1.2
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.0±4.8	+2.6	+1.3
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±2.4	+2.5	+1.5
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.9±4.8	+3.6	+0.3
FH to the middle · serve +1	+3.5±2.2	+2.2	+1.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	−1.8±2.6	−1.5	−0.3
FH slice to the middle · rally	−0.6±3.2	−2.5	+1.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.4±2.6	−1.3	+0.9
FH to the middle · return +1	−0.2±2.6	−0.3	+0.1
FH to their backhand · return	+0.1±3.7	+0.5	−0.4

Novak Djokovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+6.8±3.5	+3.4	+3.4
BH to their forehand · return	+5.2±4.6	+1.7	+3.5
FH to their backhand · return	+4.9±3.1	+0.5	+4.3
BH to their backhand · return	+4.4±2.2	+0.6	+3.8
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+4.1±7.2	+2.9	+1.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	+4.0±3.2	+2.2	+1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · serve +1	−3.6±2.5	−0.2	−3.4
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.5±4.9	+2.4	−5.9
FH to the middle · return +1	−3.0±2.6	+1.1	−4.0
BH to their forehand · return +1	−2.2±4.8	±0.0	−2.2
BH to the middle · rally	−0.7±1.3	+0.4	−1.1

Against Novak Djokovic-like opponents

Guillermo Coria v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.0%	39.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Andy Murray, Pablo Andujar, Mikhail Kukushkin, Denis Istomin, Nikolay Davydenko. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.