Game plan

Jimmy Connors v Fernando Verdasco

Every number combines what Jimmy Connors does well with what Fernando Verdasco allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jimmy Connors wins, best of 3 43%90%: 27%–60% · best of 5: 41%

Serve points won 59.2% / 60.7% Jimmy / Fernando · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 43%serve 59.2% / 60.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jimmy Connors's record against Fernando Verdasco's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jimmy	Fernando
Direction choice	±0.00 ±0.09 better than 56%	+0.12 ±0.05 better than 85%
Shot selection	−0.39 ±0.17 better than 17%	−0.03 ±0.12 better than 48%
Execution	+0.08 ±0.41 better than 72%	−0.18 ±0.42 better than 58%
Points left on the table	2.88 ±0.22 lower than 26%	2.65 ±0.10 lower than 45%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jimmy Connors serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jimmy wins	v Fernando	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	26%	62%	71%	60.5%±5.4	39% ▲
Body	15%	57%	63%	56.4%±7.9	2% ▼
T	60%	59%	76%	60.7%±4.7	59%

Optimal v Fernando Verdasco: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jimmy wins	v Fernando	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	64%	74%	65.1%±4.9	55%
Body	15%	59%	62%	58.3%±7.7	2% ▼
T	30%	67%	77%	72.6%±5.0	43% ▲

Optimal v Fernando Verdasco: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Fernando Verdasco serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Fernando wins	v Jimmy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	72%	70%	68.8%±4.7	52% ▲
Body	11%	57%	59%	52.4%±9.2	0% ▼
T	50%	65%	71%	60.5%±5.1	48% ▼

Optimal v Jimmy Connors: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Fernando wins	v Jimmy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	57%	69%	73%	69.6%±4.4	52% ▼
Body	9%	63%	56%	56.6%±9.5	0% ▼
T	34%	78%	70%	76.6%±4.5	48% ▲

Optimal v Jimmy Connors: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jimmy Connors returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	−2.8	+1.0	+2.4±2.1
FH crosscourt	33%	+5.5	+2.3	+2.9	+10.7±3.7
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−2.6	+3.4	+2.5±3.9
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	+1.2	+1.6	+9.4±1.8
FH slice through the middle	1%	−4.2	−2.3	−1.1	−7.7±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (612 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	−1.7	+1.6	+6.4±1.7
BH down the line	22%	+4.2	+5.3	+3.8	+13.4±3.6
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	−1.5	−0.8	+6.5±3.0
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−4.1	+2.2	−6.1±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	+3.9	−0.1	+4.4±3.0

Lean BH down the line: +7.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (866 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
FH crosscourt	47%	−0.2	+2.0	−6.1	−4.3±3.7
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	+0.7	+1.3	−1.5±2.2
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	+1.4	+0.8	+0.4±4.3
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.9	+1.7	+2.7±1.6
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	−0.5	−0.1	+1.9±2.8

Lean FH down the line: +3.0±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (417 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.0	+3.9	−0.1	+4.9±2.9
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	+2.6	+1.7	+1.5±2.1
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+7.0	−1.2	+5.6±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.0	+0.4	±0.0	−3.6±1.8
BH slice through the middle	3%	−11.3	+1.9	−0.5	−9.9±1.9

Lean BH down the line: +2.8±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (512 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Fernando Verdasco returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.7	+0.6	+5.6±2.0
FH crosscourt	32%	+5.5	+1.4	−0.4	+6.5±3.6
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	−1.1	+5.3	+5.9±3.9
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	−0.9	+4.2	−0.9±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+0.6	+1.8	−1.9±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.0±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (684 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
BH through the middle	32%	+6.4	−0.4	+1.3	+7.2±1.8
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	−4.5	−0.8	+3.4±3.0
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	±0.0	+4.8	+0.6±1.8
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.3	+4.5	+10.0±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−3.7	+1.9	−1.3±2.8

Lean BH down the line: +5.8±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1076 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
FH crosscourt	49%	−0.2	−0.3	−0.8	−1.3±4.0
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	−1.7	+1.0	−4.2±2.6
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	−0.5	+5.2	+2.9±4.5

Lean FH down the line: +4.5±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (232 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	+1.5	+2.4	+1.0±2.1
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	+1.3	+2.2	+4.5±3.1
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+4.4	+2.5	+6.7±4.7
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	+1.5	+1.0	−0.3±2.2
FH inside-in	6%	+0.6	+2.0	−0.8	+1.7±4.1

Lean BH down the line: +4.1±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (506 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Jimmy Connors

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · return	+14.2±4.9	+9.0	+5.1
FH slice to their backhand · rally	+9.2±5.4	+6.1	+3.1
FH to their backhand · return	+6.8±3.3	+4.2	+2.6
BH to their forehand · return	+6.7±3.6	+5.2	+1.5
BH to their backhand · return	+5.8±3.3	+5.0	+0.8
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.5±4.8	+3.1	+1.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−10.8±4.5	−6.0	−4.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.8±3.8	−1.2	−3.5
FH to the middle · serve +1	−4.2±2.8	−2.4	−1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.4±2.2	−3.2	−0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.3±1.9	−2.1	−1.3

Fernando Verdasco

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · return	+12.0±4.3	+2.0	+9.9
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+8.6±3.0	+1.5	+7.1
BH slice to the middle · return	+6.7±2.2	+0.1	+6.6
FH to their backhand · return	+6.5±3.5	−0.3	+6.8
BH to their forehand · return	+6.1±3.8	+2.2	+3.9
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+6.0±3.1	−1.5	+7.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.0±3.5	−1.9	−4.1
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.0±4.4	+0.4	−6.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	−5.4±4.4	−2.8	−2.6
BH to the middle · return +1	−5.2±2.8	−1.1	−4.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.0±2.1	−2.5	−0.6

Against Fernando Verdasco-like opponents

Jimmy Connors v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.4%	38.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Rafael Jodar, Learner Tien, Joao Fonseca, Hubert Hurkacz, Ugo Humbert, Sebastian Korda, David Goffin, Kyle Edmund, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nikolay Davydenko. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.