Game plan

Joao Fonseca v Fernando Gonzalez

Every number combines what Joao Fonseca does well with what Fernando Gonzalez allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Joao Fonseca wins, best of 3 71%90%: 42%–91% · best of 5: 75%

Serve points won 68.0% / 63.5% Joao / Fernando · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 71%serve 68.0% / 63.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Joao Fonseca's record against Fernando Gonzalez's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Joao	Fernando
Direction choice	+0.02 ±0.07 better than 62%	+0.17 ±0.06 better than 91%
Shot selection	−0.24 ±0.14 better than 28%	−0.36 ±0.12 better than 19%
Execution	+0.83 ±0.60 better than 93%	+0.08 ±0.42 better than 72%
Points left on the table	2.55 ±0.09 lower than 55%	2.62 ±0.11 lower than 47%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Joao Fonseca serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Joao wins	v Fernando	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	76%	76%	78.7%±3.6	56% ▲
Body	9%	65%	68%	69.2%±7.5	0% ▼
T	48%	76%	70%	71.3%±4.0	44% ▼

Optimal v Fernando Gonzalez: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Joao wins	v Fernando	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	69%	73%	69.2%±4.1	50% ▼
Body	10%	61%	66%	64.6%±8.6	0% ▼
T	37%	70%	75%	72.9%±4.5	50% ▲

Optimal v Fernando Gonzalez: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Fernando Gonzalez serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Fernando wins	v Joao	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	71%	69%	66.7%±4.3	40% ▼
Body	10%	64%	60%	60.8%±8.3	0% ▼
T	47%	81%	73%	79.1%±3.6	60% ▲

Optimal v Joao Fonseca: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Fernando wins	v Joao	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	71%	72%	69.7%±4.1	48% ▼
Body	5%	63%	62%	62.4%±9.9	0% ▼
T	39%	73%	74%	75.7%±4.3	52% ▲

Optimal v Joao Fonseca: +0.2±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Joao Fonseca returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	+1.9	+0.7	+6.9±2.0
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+3.7	+1.2	+10.4±3.8
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−1.3	+2.4	−3.1±2.2
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+6.9	−1.0	+7.6±3.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+2.6	+0.4	−1.3±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (792 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+2.6	±0.0	+9.0±1.9
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+3.2	+0.3	+12.2±2.6
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+6.3	+1.9	+12.4±4.2
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−1.2	+2.3	−3.0±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	+1.2	±0.0	+1.7±2.8

Lean BH down the line: +4.7±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (891 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	−0.7	+1.1	−3.0±2.5
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.7	−0.7	−1.7±4.1
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+1.9	+1.3	+1.4±4.3
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	−0.1	+1.2	−11.6±1.9
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+0.3	±0.0	−9.1±1.4

Lean FH down the line: +3.5±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (233 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−0.6	+1.4	−2.1±1.8
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	−1.2	−0.7	−0.9±2.4
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+0.7	−2.6	−2.1±4.8
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	−1.2	+1.1	−2.9±2.2
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	+0.5	−0.7	+0.3±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +2.0±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (627 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Fernando Gonzalez returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
FH through the middle	29%	+4.3	−1.9	+2.3	+4.6±2.2
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	−5.3	+3.2	+3.4±3.7
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	−0.3	+3.3	+4.7±3.8
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+1.4	+0.5	−2.3±2.1
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+3.0	+2.9	+1.6±3.2

Lean FH down the line: +2.1±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (852 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
BH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	+4.9	+0.2	+1.0±2.1
BH through the middle	23%	+6.4	−0.4	+2.3	+8.3±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	17%	+0.5	+3.9	+0.7	+5.1±2.7
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	−2.8	+4.0	+5.5±4.0
BH crosscourt	12%	+8.8	−1.2	+3.3	+10.9±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1298 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	−1.4	−1.3	−3.0±4.1
FH through the middle	28%	−3.5	−1.6	−2.1	−7.1±2.5
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+3.1	+0.1	+1.4±4.4
FH slice down the line	10%	−9.4	+0.5	+1.2	−7.8±2.8
FH slice through the middle	7%	−12.7	+2.1	−0.4	−10.9±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +6.0±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (314 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
BH slice crosscourt	19%	−4.0	+0.2	±0.0	−3.9±1.6
BH through the middle	17%	−2.9	+0.7	−0.3	−2.4±2.1
FH inside-out	15%	+1.0	+3.7	+0.1	+4.7±3.3
FH through the middle	12%	−2.9	−2.5	−2.1	−7.4±2.1
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	−4.5	−0.5	−5.3±4.8

Lean FH inside-out: +7.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (822 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Joao Fonseca

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.4±5.3	+0.9	+6.5
BH to their forehand · return	+6.0±6.0	+2.5	+3.5
BH to the middle · return	+6.0±3.2	+4.0	+2.0
BH to their backhand · return	+5.8±4.6	+4.9	+0.8
FH to the middle · return	+4.7±3.5	+5.0	−0.3
FH to their backhand · return	+4.5±5.4	+5.1	−0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−10.6±6.9	−2.7	−7.8
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−8.0±4.5	−1.3	−6.7
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−7.7±7.9	−3.6	−4.1
BH to their backhand · return +1	−5.3±4.9	−2.1	−3.2
BH slice to the middle · return +1	−5.2±2.7	−3.8	−1.4

Fernando Gonzalez

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+5.2±3.3	+0.5	+4.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.1±5.0	+4.9	+0.2
FH slice to their backhand · return	+4.3±4.4	−0.7	+5.0
BH slice to the middle · return	+4.0±2.6	+3.3	+0.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	+3.7±6.6	−1.2	+4.9
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.5±5.1	+2.7	+0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−9.2±6.0	−4.1	−5.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−8.1±4.4	−4.1	−4.0
BH slice to the middle · return +1	−4.5±3.2	+2.7	−7.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.5±4.3	−0.8	−3.7
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−3.3±4.0	+1.1	−4.4

Against Fernando Gonzalez-like opponents

Joao Fonseca v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.5%	36.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Lorenzo Musetti, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexei Popyrin, Dominic Thiem, Jeremy Chardy, Steve Johnson, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Roger Federer, James Blake. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.