Game plan

John Mcenroe v Novak Djokovic

Every number combines what John Mcenroe does well with what Novak Djokovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

John Mcenroe wins, best of 3 15%90%: 5%–32% · best of 5: 10%

Serve points won 59.4% / 67.8% John / Novak · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 15%serve 59.4% / 67.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by John Mcenroe's record against Novak Djokovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	John	Novak
Direction choice	−0.26 ±0.08 better than 9%	+0.04 ±0.02 better than 70%
Shot selection	+0.77 ±0.17 better than 98%	+0.04 ±0.03 better than 58%
Execution	−0.45 ±0.30 better than 46%	+1.17 ±0.10 better than 97%
Points left on the table	4.83 ±0.17 lower than 1%	2.24 ±0.03 lower than 89%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

John Mcenroe serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	John wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	75%	69%	71.3%±2.9	56% ▲
Body	17%	64%	58%	58.3%±4.2	4% ▼
T	40%	69%	71%	65.2%±2.9	40%

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.2±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	John wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	74%	69%	70.4%±2.5	49% ▼
Body	10%	64%	57%	57.9%±5.5	0% ▼
T	38%	78%	69%	75.3%±3.1	51% ▲

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Novak Djokovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v John	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	70%	71.5%±2.4	59% ▲
Body	9%	67%	63%	66.3%±5.2	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	72%	73.3%±2.6	41% ▼

Optimal v John Mcenroe: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v John	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	74%	69%	69.8%±3.0	47% ▼
Body	9%	63%	65%	64.7%±4.8	0% ▼
T	40%	73%	72%	73.0%±2.5	53% ▲

Optimal v John Mcenroe: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

John Mcenroe returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+1.6	−0.4	+5.5±1.3
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.5	+5.7	−0.2	+10.9±2.3
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+0.9	+0.6	+3.1±2.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	+2.4	+1.0	−0.8±1.7
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	+1.4	+0.5	+8.4±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1163 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.4	−2.3	+0.5	+4.6±1.1
BH down the line	25%	+4.2	+0.4	+0.7	+5.2±2.1
BH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	+3.1	+0.5	−0.6±1.3
BH crosscourt	9%	+8.8	±0.0	+0.3	+9.0±2.4
BH slice down the line	9%	−8.4	+5.1	+1.0	−2.3±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.4±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1830 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+2.2	−2.6	−0.5±2.9
FH through the middle	36%	−3.5	−0.4	+0.3	−3.6±1.9
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	+1.3	−1.6	−2.1±3.4
FH slice down the line	2%	−9.4	−1.1	+1.1	−9.4±2.4
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+1.5	−0.8	−12.0±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (369 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	+2.3	+0.6	±0.0±1.3
BH down the line	22%	−0.2	+3.5	+0.9	+4.2±2.8
BH crosscourt	18%	+1.0	+2.8	±0.0	+3.8±2.1
BH slice through the middle	8%	−11.3	+3.9	−0.6	−8.0±2.0
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	+2.6	+0.3	±0.0±1.8
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	+5.3	−1.6	+4.7±2.8

Lean FH inside-out: +3.9±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1151 returns charted)

Novak Djokovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v John	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.5	−4.0	+0.7±1.2
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+1.9	−2.2	+1.4±2.3
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.3	+5.4	+11.2±2.5
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+1.5	−0.5	−3.1±1.7
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+1.4	±0.0	−2.9±1.8
BH inside-in	0%	+7.7	+2.5	+3.6	+13.8±3.1

Lean BH inside-in: +11.5±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v John	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	−4.5	+2.4±1.1
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+1.4	+3.6	+13.8±1.8
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.2	−3.4	−7.8±1.4
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.2	−1.8	+4.6±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.0	+5.5	+5.0±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +10.2±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v John	Value
FH through the middle	54%	−3.5	+1.3	−1.3	−3.4±1.4
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+1.5	+0.9	+0.7±2.9
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	+1.5	+2.6	+3.9±2.9
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	−1.2	+0.1	−1.0±1.7
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	−0.4	+2.7	+3.2±3.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.0±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v John	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	+1.4	+1.8	+4.2±1.6
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.1	−2.1±1.1
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+2.0	+2.7	+4.5±3.1
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	−0.9	−1.3	−5.1±1.9
FH inside-out	1%	+1.0	+0.1	+0.9	+2.0±3.2
FH inside-in	0%	+0.6	+1.5	+2.6	+4.6±3.7

Lean FH inside-in: +3.5±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

John Mcenroe

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+11.4±4.1	+10.4	+1.0
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+5.4±3.4	+1.6	+3.8
FH to their backhand · return	+5.2±1.6	+6.4	−1.3
FH slice to the middle · return	+4.7±1.8	+3.8	+1.0
BH volley to the middle · serve +1	+4.7±3.4	+1.4	+3.4
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+4.4±4.3	+3.0	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−7.1±3.6	−6.5	−0.6
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1	−3.6±3.4	−1.4	−2.2
Smash to their backhand · rally	−3.3±3.5	−4.4	+1.1
BH to their backhand · return +1	−2.9±1.8	−2.7	−0.2
Smash to their forehand · rally	−2.8±3.2	−2.0	−0.8

Novak Djokovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+10.9±4.1	+2.7	+8.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	+8.3±2.1	+1.8	+6.5
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+7.7±4.4	+6.2	+1.5
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+7.7±4.2	+0.1	+7.5
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+7.3±4.2	+4.7	+2.6
FH to their backhand · return	+5.0±1.8	+1.1	+3.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return +1	−3.3±1.6	+1.4	−4.7
FH volley to their forehand · serve +1	−2.9±4.3	−1.4	−1.5
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.7±1.3	+0.5	−3.2
FH lob to the middle · return +1	−2.4±3.1	−1.6	−0.7
FH to the middle · return	−2.4±0.9	+1.1	−3.5

Against Novak Djokovic-like opponents

John Mcenroe v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.6%	35.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Andy Murray, Pablo Andujar, Mikhail Kukushkin, Denis Istomin, Nikolay Davydenko. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.