Game plan

Juan Martin Del Potro v Dominic Thiem

Every number combines what Juan Martin Del Potro does well with what Dominic Thiem allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Juan Martin Del Potro wins, best of 3 72%90%: 64%–79% · best of 5: 76%

Serve points won 67.2% / 62.5% Juan / Dominic · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 65%serve 66.8% / 63.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Juan Martin Del Potro's record against Dominic Thiem's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.6 on serve, +3.6 on return vs expectation (979 points); head-to-head: −1.9 on serve, +1.7 on return vs expectation (572 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Juan	Dominic
Direction choice	+0.16 ±0.04 better than 90%	+0.12 ±0.03 better than 83%
Shot selection	−0.40 ±0.07 better than 17%	−0.28 ±0.08 better than 25%
Execution	+1.15 ±0.18 better than 97%	+0.04 ±0.20 better than 71%
Points left on the table	2.10 ±0.05 lower than 98%	2.48 ±0.05 lower than 63%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Juan Martin Del Potro serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Dominic	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	73%	73%	73.2%±2.4	48% ▲
Body	12%	65%	63%	64.7%±4.5	0% ▼
T	53%	76%	73%	74.0%±2.2	52% ▼

Optimal v Dominic Thiem: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Dominic	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	78%	72%	77.6%±2.1	60% ▲
Body	10%	64%	65%	65.8%±4.9	0% ▼
T	43%	75%	72%	74.9%±2.4	40% ▼

Optimal v Dominic Thiem: +0.7±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Dominic Thiem serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Dominic wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	73%	72%	72.6%±2.3	39% ▼
Body	5%	61%	61%	58.5%±5.6	0% ▼
T	48%	74%	76%	75.6%±2.2	61% ▲

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Dominic wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	71%	72%	70.3%±2.3	65% ▲
Body	7%	64%	63%	63.9%±5.5	0% ▼
T	40%	71%	72%	71.2%±2.7	35% ▼

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Juan Martin Del Potro returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+1.2	−1.2	+4.2±1.2
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	+2.6	−1.6	+6.5±2.2
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+2.5	−1.3	+2.9±2.6
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	−1.1	−1.6	−6.9±2.0
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−2.4	+1.2	−5.4±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2410 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.4	+1.9	−1.1	+7.2±1.2
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+3.2	+0.8	+12.7±1.6
BH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+2.3	−1.9	−3.9±1.4
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	+1.1	−1.4	+0.2±2.0
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+6.0	−4.4	+5.8±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.1±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2945 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	+0.3	−0.9	−4.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	−2.2	−3.1	−5.5±3.2
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+1.4	−0.8	−1.1±3.7
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+1.4	+0.7	−10.5±2.2
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+2.6	−0.1	−7.0±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +3.1±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (605 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.0	+0.9	±0.0	+2.0±1.4
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+0.3	±0.0	−2.6±1.1
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	−0.8	−0.4	−1.3±3.8
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.4	−0.9	−3.4±1.9
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+0.4	−0.8	+0.6±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1911 returns charted)

Dominic Thiem returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−1.4	+1.4	+4.2±1.2
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	−1.0	+1.2	+1.9±2.4
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−1.0	−1.9	+2.6±2.7
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.0	+0.6	−4.6±1.8
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−3.2	+2.4	−5.1±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +1.7±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2907 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.4	−1.0	−0.2	+5.2±1.1
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−2.3	+1.2	−5.3±1.2
BH crosscourt	18%	+8.8	−1.5	−2.0	+5.2±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	−2.3	−1.0	−2.8±1.8
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−4.1	+3.2	+3.4±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (3946 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	−0.5	−0.5	−4.5±1.7
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	+0.8	−2.4	−1.8±3.5
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−0.8	+1.0	−1.5±3.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.5	+0.5	−12.7±2.1
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.3	−1.4	−11.1±2.4

Lean FH down the line: +1.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (802 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	−1.0	−0.4	−4.2±1.1
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.0	+1.2	+0.7	+2.8±1.5
FH through the middle	13%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.5	−2.5±1.5
FH inside-out	9%	+1.0	+0.2	+1.0	+2.2±2.7
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−5.1	+1.2	−4.0±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2564 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.