Game plan

Juan Martin Del Potro v Karen Khachanov

Every number combines what Juan Martin Del Potro does well with what Karen Khachanov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Juan Martin Del Potro wins, best of 3 57%90%: 37%–75% · best of 5: 58%

Serve points won 63.8% / 62.4% Juan / Karen · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 68%serve 64.6% / 61.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Juan Martin Del Potro's record against Karen Khachanov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.6 on serve, −1.6 on return vs expectation (2169 points); head-to-head: −0.7 on serve, −3.6 on return vs expectation (824 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Juan	Karen
Direction choice	+0.16 ±0.04 better than 90%	+0.01 ±0.06 better than 59%
Shot selection	−0.40 ±0.07 better than 17%	−0.28 ±0.08 better than 25%
Execution	+1.15 ±0.18 better than 97%	+0.50 ±0.28 better than 84%
Points left on the table	2.10 ±0.05 lower than 98%	2.41 ±0.10 lower than 72%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Juan Martin Del Potro serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Karen	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	73%	74%	74.7%±2.8	48% ▲
Body	12%	65%	64%	66.0%±5.5	0% ▼
T	53%	76%	76%	76.8%±2.7	52% ▼

Optimal v Karen Khachanov: +0.8±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Karen	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	78%	76%	81.2%±2.5	60% ▲
Body	10%	64%	65%	66.1%±6.2	0% ▼
T	43%	75%	72%	74.5%±2.8	40% ▼

Optimal v Karen Khachanov: +0.9±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Karen Khachanov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Karen wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	73%	72%	72.1%±2.7	63% ▲
Body	5%	63%	61%	60.1%±7.2	0% ▼
T	45%	73%	76%	74.3%±2.9	37% ▼

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Karen wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	74%	72%	73.2%±2.9	65% ▲
Body	6%	61%	63%	61.1%±7.2	0% ▼
T	42%	69%	72%	68.8%±3.3	35% ▼

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.7±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Juan Martin Del Potro returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karen	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+1.2	+1.3	+6.8±1.4
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	+2.6	+0.9	+9.0±2.6
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+2.5	+1.9	+6.1±3.1
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	−1.1	+0.1	−5.2±2.1
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−2.4	+0.2	−6.4±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2410 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karen	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.4	+1.9	+1.7	+10.1±1.4
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+3.2	+0.3	+12.2±2.2
BH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+2.3	+0.6	−1.3±1.6
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	+1.1	+1.5	+3.1±2.4
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+6.0	+0.4	+10.6±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.7±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (2945 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karen	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	+0.3	±0.0	−3.1±2.1
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	−2.2	+2.3	−0.1±3.8
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+1.4	+0.6	+0.2±4.2
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+1.4	−0.3	−11.6±2.0
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+2.6	+0.8	−6.1±2.4

Lean FH down the line: +2.0±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (605 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karen	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.0	+0.9	−0.8	+1.1±1.8
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+0.3	+0.6	−1.9±1.3
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	−0.8	−1.8	−2.7±4.6
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.4	±0.0	−2.5±2.0
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+0.4	+0.6	+2.0±3.4
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+3.8	+2.3	+6.7±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +7.3±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1911 returns charted)

Karen Khachanov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	36%	+4.3	+0.6	+1.4	+6.2±1.5
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−0.9	+0.6	−4.5±1.6
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	+0.4	−1.9	+4.0±3.2
FH down the line	11%	+1.7	+1.1	+1.2	+4.0±3.2
FH slice down the line	7%	−4.3	−0.5	+2.4	−2.3±3.0

Lean FH through the middle: +4.6±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1496 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+0.5	−0.2	+6.6±1.4
BH crosscourt	32%	+8.8	+1.1	−2.0	+7.8±2.1
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+4.2	+3.2	+11.6±3.7
BH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	−0.6	+1.2	−3.5±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−2.2	−1.0	−2.7±2.5

Lean BH down the line: +5.8±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1202 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	53%	−3.5	−1.0	−0.5	−5.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	+0.6	−2.4	−2.0±3.8
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	−0.4	+1.0	−1.1±4.0
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	−2.1	+0.5	−14.3±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +2.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (443 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH crosscourt	49%	+1.0	+1.1	+0.7	+2.8±1.8
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+2.3	−0.4	−1.0±1.5
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	+2.3	+1.2	+3.3±4.2
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.5	−2.6±2.0
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	−0.2	+1.0	+1.8±3.0

Lean BH down the line: +2.3±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (854 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.