Game plan

Lorenzo Musetti v Richard Krajicek

Every number combines what Lorenzo Musetti does well with what Richard Krajicek allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lorenzo Musetti wins, best of 3 46%90%: 33%–60% · best of 5: 45%

Serve points won 65.4% / 66.2% Lorenzo / Richard · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 46%serve 65.4% / 66.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lorenzo Musetti's record against Richard Krajicek's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Lorenzo	Richard
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.04 better than 50%	−0.02 ±0.09 better than 52%
Shot selection	−0.57 ±0.10 better than 9%	+0.82 ±0.24 better than 98%
Execution	+0.48 ±0.22 better than 83%	−1.17 ±0.53 better than 19%
Points left on the table	2.74 ±0.06 lower than 35%	4.60 ±0.22 lower than 1%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lorenzo Musetti serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lorenzo wins	v Richard	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	70%	76%	73.2%±4.0	38% ▼
Body	9%	64%	63%	63.5%±7.9	0% ▼
T	49%	72%	79%	76.8%±3.4	62% ▲

Optimal v Richard Krajicek: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lorenzo wins	v Richard	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	69%	79%	75.3%±3.5	68% ▲
Body	8%	61%	62%	59.7%±8.4	0% ▼
T	37%	69%	73%	70.2%±4.5	32% ▼

Optimal v Richard Krajicek: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Richard Krajicek serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Richard wins	v Lorenzo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	84%	72%	83.5%±3.1	52% ▲
Body	9%	69%	61%	66.6%±7.6	0% ▼
T	52%	81%	71%	77.8%±3.5	48% ▼

Optimal v Lorenzo Musetti: +1.0±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Richard wins	v Lorenzo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	81%	68%	77.5%±3.9	40% ▼
Body	8%	59%	63%	58.1%±8.9	0% ▼
T	47%	79%	71%	77.9%±3.6	60% ▲

Optimal v Lorenzo Musetti: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lorenzo Musetti returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Richard	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	−0.5	−1.5	+2.3±1.9
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	−1.4	+1.1	+1.3±3.4
FH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.4	−0.9	−5.5±1.6
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+2.3	−0.1	+7.7±3.6
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+0.2	±0.0	−4.1±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.0±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2257 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Richard	Value
BH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	+1.4	−2.4	−5.3±1.8
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	+1.1	−1.7	+5.8±1.9
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	+1.4	−2.0	+8.2±2.6
BH slice crosscourt	11%	+0.5	−0.6	−1.7	−1.8±2.6
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	±0.0	−2.4	+1.8±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2587 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Richard	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.1	−2.2	−4.7±2.3
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	−1.0	+5.0	+2.3±4.3
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	−1.2	−0.6	−2.0±4.1
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	−0.7	−0.1	−13.5±1.9
FH slice down the line	2%	−9.4	+1.2	−0.5	−8.8±2.3

Lean FH down the line: +4.9±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (600 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Richard	Value
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+1.0	−2.0	−3.9±1.5
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.0	+1.4	+3.1	+5.5±2.1
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−1.8	+2.4	+0.4±4.0
FH through the middle	10%	−2.9	+1.2	−2.2	−3.9±2.1
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	−1.1	+5.0	+4.9±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1827 returns charted)

Richard Krajicek returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	−1.3	+0.8	+3.8±1.9
FH down the line	32%	+1.7	+1.6	−2.1	+1.2±3.1
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	+1.9	+0.4	+7.8±3.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	−0.7	+0.4	−4.6±2.1
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+0.7	+1.1	−2.5±2.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (619 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
BH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	±0.0	−0.8	−5.0±1.9
BH through the middle	21%	+6.4	−4.8	+0.5	+2.1±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	19%	+0.5	+2.0	−1.0	+1.5±2.6
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−4.6	−0.7	−1.1±3.8
BH slice down the line	12%	−8.4	+4.2	−0.5	−4.7±3.4
BH crosscourt	9%	+8.8	±0.0	−0.9	+7.9±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (875 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.5	−2.9	−0.8	−7.1±2.3
FH down the line	32%	−1.8	−2.1	−0.5	−4.4±4.0
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	+0.6	+1.1	+1.4±3.8
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	+0.9	−1.7	−13.4±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (149 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
BH slice crosscourt	22%	−4.0	+0.8	−1.1	−4.4±2.4
BH through the middle	18%	−2.9	−2.7	+0.2	−5.3±1.9
BH slice through the middle	15%	−11.3	+0.2	−0.9	−12.0±2.3
BH slice down the line	14%	−9.3	+0.6	±0.0	−8.7±3.0
BH crosscourt	12%	+1.0	−0.6	−0.7	−0.3±2.5
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+3.2	+1.1	+4.8±3.7

Lean FH inside-in: +9.6±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (597 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Lorenzo Musetti

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	+8.1±3.4	+3.5	+4.6
FH to their backhand · return	+6.9±3.8	−1.3	+8.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	+6.4±4.4	+0.1	+6.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.3±4.0	+0.9	+2.4
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+3.2±7.6	−0.3	+3.5
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.1±3.2	−0.1	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−5.8±7.8	−7.5	+1.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	−4.9±5.1	−2.4	−2.5
BH to the middle · return	−4.7±1.8	−0.3	−4.4
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±4.9	+0.1	−4.3
BH slice to the middle · return	−3.8±2.5	+1.0	−4.8

Richard Krajicek

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+6.5±7.4	+6.2	+0.3
FH to their forehand · return	+3.4±4.4	+2.9	+0.4
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+2.4±7.8	+6.3	−3.9
BH slice to their backhand · return	+1.3±2.9	+2.1	−0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±3.4	+0.6	−0.5
FH to their backhand · return	−0.1±3.2	+2.3	−2.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	−12.4±6.9	−9.9	−2.5
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−11.7±7.9	−13.8	+2.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	−11.7±4.1	−7.3	−4.4
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1	−9.3±6.2	−4.3	−5.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−8.6±4.0	−5.2	−3.4

Against Richard Krajicek-like opponents

Lorenzo Musetti v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.0%	37.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Tim Henman, Max Mirnyi, Greg Rusedski, Mark Philippoussis, Pete Sampras, Patrick Rafter, Boris Becker, Michael Stich, John Mcenroe, Pat Cash. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.