Game plan

Lucas Pouille v Sebastien Grosjean

Every number combines what Lucas Pouille does well with what Sebastien Grosjean allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lucas Pouille wins, best of 3 61%90%: 34%–84% · best of 5: 64%

Serve points won 64.2% / 61.9% Lucas / Sebastien · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 61%serve 64.2% / 61.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lucas Pouille's record against Sebastien Grosjean's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Lucas	Sebastien
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.08 better than 52%	−0.07 ±0.11 better than 38%
Shot selection	+0.05 ±0.16 better than 60%	+0.09 ±0.19 better than 64%
Execution	−0.99 ±0.48 better than 26%	−0.82 ±0.58 better than 31%
Points left on the table	2.56 ±0.14 lower than 54%	2.72 ±0.24 lower than 39%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lucas Pouille serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lucas wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	71%	79%	76.6%±5.6	57% ▲
Body	10%	65%	67%	69.1%±12.7	0% ▼
T	46%	74%	78%	77.1%±6.1	43% ▼

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lucas wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	74%	75.2%±6.3	40% ▼
Body	7%	61%	65%	62.2%±14.4	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	69%	70.8%±6.8	60% ▲

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sebastien Grosjean serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Lucas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	73%	77%	77.2%±5.7	42% ▼
Body	7%	54%	68%	58.6%±13.0	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	78%	79.0%±5.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Lucas Pouille: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Lucas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	70%	76%	74.0%±6.2	40% ▼
Body	4%	55%	63%	54.6%±15.1	0% ▼
T	47%	72%	78%	78.9%±5.8	60% ▲

Optimal v Lucas Pouille: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lucas Pouille returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH through the middle	35%	+4.3	+1.4	−2.0	+3.7±2.7
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−1.1	−1.2	−0.6±4.4
FH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	+1.2	+1.7	−1.3±2.3
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	−0.4	+1.9	+6.9±4.4
FH slice down the line	7%	−4.3	+1.1	−1.0	−4.2±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (462 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	−3.4	−1.5	+1.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−1.3	+1.0	+8.5±3.5
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	+0.6	+3.4	+8.3±4.3
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.4	+0.2	−4.4±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	+2.2	+0.1	+2.8±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (619 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH through the middle	56%	−3.5	−0.8	+0.7	−3.6±2.9
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	−2.6	+4.0	−0.4±4.5
FH crosscourt	21%	−0.2	−0.2	+0.3	−0.1±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH through the middle	46%	−2.9	−1.1	±0.0	−4.0±2.3
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.0	−2.5	+1.5	±0.0±2.9
BH down the line	18%	−0.2	+2.0	−1.9	−0.1±5.0
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.6	+0.7	−2.7±2.2
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	+0.9	+4.0	+5.8±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (387 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Sebastien Grosjean returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	+1.1	−0.3	+5.0±2.7
FH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+3.4	−0.1	−0.9±2.3
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−0.5	+3.1	+4.3±4.3
FH slice down the line	10%	−4.3	+3.5	−1.9	−2.7±3.0
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−4.5	−0.9	+0.1±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: +3.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (301 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−2.7	+0.2	+3.9±2.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	−1.2	−1.1	+6.5±3.4
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.5	−3.5±2.5
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+3.6	+0.8	+8.6±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.5	+0.6	−0.3±2.9

Lean BH down the line: +5.6±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (272 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	+0.2	−1.5	−4.8±2.6
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−3.2	−0.2	−5.2±4.4
FH crosscourt	11%	−0.2	−1.5	−1.7	−3.5±3.8

Lean FH through the middle: ±0.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (79 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	+2.2	+0.9	+0.2±2.3
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	+0.9	+1.5	+3.5±3.0
FH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.2	−1.5	−4.6±2.2
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.1	+3.7	+4.6±4.9
FH inside-out	10%	+1.0	+2.5	−0.2	+3.3±3.5

Lean BH down the line: +3.3±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (275 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Lucas Pouille

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±2.2	+0.9	+1.5
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.2±3.6	−0.1	+2.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.8±2.8	−0.2	+2.0
FH to their backhand · return	+1.3±3.6	−0.2	+1.5
BH slice to the middle · return	+0.7±2.5	+0.5	+0.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+0.5±2.4	−0.7	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.8±3.9	−3.6	−1.2
BH to the middle · return	−4.2±1.9	−2.7	−1.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.8±3.8	−2.4	−1.4
BH to the middle · rally	−3.3±2.0	−2.4	−0.9
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.6±3.0	−2.4	−0.2

Sebastien Grosjean

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+5.4±4.3	+2.7	+2.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.4±2.6	+1.1	+1.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.2±3.4	−0.1	+2.3
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.8±3.1	+0.1	+1.7
BH slice to the middle · rally	+1.3±2.3	+1.4	−0.1
BH to the middle · rally	+1.3±1.9	+1.5	−0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.7±3.7	−5.3	−1.4
FH to their forehand · return +1	−5.0±3.8	−4.4	−0.6
FH to the middle · rally	−3.1±2.0	−1.4	−1.8
FH to their backhand · return +1	−3.0±3.6	−4.2	+1.2
BH to the middle · serve +1	−2.6±2.6	+0.1	−2.7

Against Sebastien Grosjean-like opponents

Lucas Pouille v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.2%	32.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Rinky Hijikata, Aleksandar Vukic, Fabio Fognini, Kyle Edmund, Andreas Seppi, Tomas Berdych, James Blake, Nicolas Kiefer, Jim Courier. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.