Game plan

Miloslav Mecir v Marcelo Rios

Every number combines what Miloslav Mecir does well with what Marcelo Rios allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Miloslav Mecir wins, best of 3 50%90%: 18%–82% · best of 5: 50%

Serve points won 62.3% / 62.3% Miloslav / Marcelo · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 50%serve 62.3% / 62.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Miloslav Mecir's record against Marcelo Rios's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Miloslav	Marcelo
Direction choice	+0.09 ±0.15 better than 80%	+0.13 ±0.05 better than 87%
Shot selection	−0.10 ±0.23 better than 40%	−0.23 ±0.19 better than 28%
Execution	−0.41 ±0.63 better than 48%	−0.40 ±0.62 better than 48%
Points left on the table	2.41 ±0.36 lower than 72%	2.60 ±0.15 lower than 50%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Miloslav Mecir serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Miloslav wins	v Marcelo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	60%	68%	54.2%±7.6	32% ▼
Body	21%	62%	66%	65.1%±10.8	34% ▲
T	34%	61%	75%	61.1%±9.0	34%

Optimal v Marcelo Rios: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +6.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Miloslav wins	v Marcelo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	63%	60%	72%	59.4%±7.6	50% ▼
Body	12%	59%	66%	61.8%±11.5	25% ▲
T	25%	64%	69%	60.9%±9.7	25%

Optimal v Marcelo Rios: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Marcelo Rios serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marcelo wins	v Miloslav	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	67%	71%	65.5%±7.8	39% ▼
Body	6%	65%	62%	63.2%±13.6	0% ▼
T	48%	72%	72%	68.4%±8.0	61% ▲

Optimal v Miloslav Mecir: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marcelo wins	v Miloslav	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	62%	70%	73%	70.3%±7.8	57% ▼
Body	8%	65%	62%	64.2%±14.2	0% ▼
T	30%	75%	69%	72.9%±8.6	43% ▲

Optimal v Miloslav Mecir: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Miloslav Mecir returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−1.6	−1.0	+1.6±2.8
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+0.7	+1.5	+7.6±4.2
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	−0.3	−1.3	+0.1±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (191 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
BH crosscourt	42%	+8.8	+0.5	−0.3	+9.0±3.5
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	−3.0	−1.2	+2.1±2.6
BH down the line	17%	+4.2	+3.5	−2.5	+5.3±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (154 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
FH crosscourt	43%	−0.2	−0.6	±0.0	−0.8±4.0
FH through the middle	41%	−3.5	+0.3	−0.2	−3.4±2.6
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	+0.4	−5.3	−6.7±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
BH crosscourt	62%	+1.0	+2.6	−0.2	+3.4±3.1
BH through the middle	28%	−2.9	+1.0	+0.9	−1.0±2.4
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	−1.3	−1.5	−3.0±4.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (159 returns charted)

Marcelo Rios returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−2.6	+1.3	+3.0±2.8
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	−0.1	+0.3	+5.7±4.3
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−3.6	+4.0	+2.1±4.4
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	+0.1	+1.4	−2.7±1.7
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+0.6	±0.0	−3.7±1.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (327 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	−2.5	−0.6	+3.3±2.6
BH down the line	20%	+4.2	+0.1	+1.0	+5.4±4.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	−2.5	+1.0	+7.4±3.4
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	+0.4	+3.9	+0.1±2.4
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+1.0	+5.1	−2.3±3.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (493 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
FH crosscourt	50%	−0.2	+1.1	+1.7	+2.6±4.3
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	−0.6	+0.2	−3.9±2.9
FH down the line	15%	−1.8	−0.3	+4.0	+1.9±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (147 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+1.2	+1.0	−0.7±2.5
BH down the line	32%	−0.2	+1.8	−0.8	+0.7±4.7
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	+1.3	+3.5	+5.8±3.0
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+0.9	+1.7	+3.1±3.7
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+1.1	+4.0	+6.1±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (356 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Miloslav Mecir

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+8.7±5.6	+8.8	−0.2
FH to their backhand · return	+3.5±4.9	+3.1	+0.4
BH to their backhand · return	+2.8±4.2	+5.1	−2.3
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.7±2.9	+2.9	−0.2
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.8±4.3	+0.8	+1.0
FH to their forehand · return	+1.6±5.8	+6.5	−5.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−4.8±6.0	−0.9	−3.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.9±1.8	−1.9	−2.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.8±3.2	−4.0	+0.2
BH to their forehand · rally	−2.9±3.0	−2.5	−0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.8±2.6	−1.8	−1.0

Marcelo Rios

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+7.8±5.3	±0.0	+7.8
BH slice to the middle · return	+5.4±2.8	+0.8	+4.6
FH to their backhand · return	+3.0±4.5	−0.2	+3.2
BH to the middle · return	+1.2±3.1	−0.6	+1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.2±2.6	−1.3	+2.5
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.0±2.2	−1.8	+2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−3.4±3.3	−3.7	+0.3
BH to their backhand · return	−2.8±4.3	−2.0	−0.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.0±3.5	−1.9	−0.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	−1.8±3.7	+0.5	−2.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.7±2.4	−0.6	−1.1

Against Marcelo Rios-like opponents

Miloslav Mecir v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.5%	38.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: David Goffin, Fernando Verdasco, Paul Henri Mathieu, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Gustavo Kuerten, Andre Agassi, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Magnus Norman. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.