Game plan

Novak Djokovic v Carlos Moya

Every number combines what Novak Djokovic does well with what Carlos Moya allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Novak Djokovic wins, best of 3 86%90%: 67%–95% · best of 5: 91%

Serve points won 70.7% / 61.9% Novak / Carlos · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 90%serve 72.3% / 61.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Novak Djokovic's record against Carlos Moya's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −3.7 on serve, −0.8 on return vs expectation (2284 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Novak	Carlos
Direction choice	+0.04 ±0.02 better than 70%	−0.13 ±0.10 better than 24%
Shot selection	+0.04 ±0.03 better than 58%	+0.16 ±0.16 better than 70%
Execution	+1.17 ±0.10 better than 97%	−0.02 ±0.39 better than 67%
Points left on the table	2.24 ±0.03 lower than 89%	2.85 ±0.17 lower than 27%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Novak Djokovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	73%	74.4%±3.4	42% ▼
Body	9%	67%	67%	70.1%±6.7	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	77%	78.6%±3.1	58% ▲

Optimal v Carlos Moya: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	74%	70%	71.2%±3.4	47% ▼
Body	9%	63%	64%	63.8%±7.6	0% ▼
T	40%	73%	77%	77.7%±3.5	53% ▲

Optimal v Carlos Moya: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Carlos Moya serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	69%	69%	64.9%±3.8	59% ▲
Body	15%	66%	58%	60.8%±6.2	2% ▼
T	39%	73%	71%	68.8%±4.2	39%

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	68%	69%	64.0%±3.7	63% ▲
Body	17%	64%	57%	57.3%±6.1	4% ▼
T	28%	71%	69%	67.3%±4.7	33% ▲

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Novak Djokovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.5	−2.1	+2.7±1.7
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+1.9	+0.8	+4.4±2.8
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.3	−2.6	+3.2±2.8
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+1.5	−0.2	−2.9±1.8
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+1.4	+1.1	−1.8±2.9
BH inside-in	0%	+7.7	+2.5	−0.3	+9.9±3.3

Lean BH inside-in: +7.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	−2.4	+4.5±1.6
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+1.4	−0.3	+9.8±2.1
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.2	+0.3	−4.2±1.6
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.2	−0.6	+5.8±3.4
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.0	+3.5	+3.0±2.1
FH inside-out	0%	+8.6	+1.3	+0.8	+10.8±3.2

Lean FH inside-out: +6.9±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	54%	−3.5	+1.3	−1.5	−3.7±2.0
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+1.5	+2.1	+1.9±3.4
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	+1.5	−0.2	+1.1±3.5
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	−1.2	+0.5	−0.5±1.9
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	−0.4	−0.6	−0.2±4.2

Lean FH down the line: +3.2±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	+1.4	−0.3	+2.1±1.8
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.5	−1.7±1.5
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+2.0	−0.6	+1.1±3.9
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	−0.9	−1.5	−5.3±2.3
FH inside-out	1%	+1.0	+0.1	+2.1	+3.2±3.5

Lean FH inside-out: +3.0±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Carlos Moya returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.3	+0.6	−0.4	+4.5±1.7
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	−0.7	−0.2	+0.8±3.0
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	−1.8	+0.6	+4.2±3.0
FH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+3.8	+1.0	+0.6±1.8
FH slice down the line	6%	−4.3	+0.4	−0.1	−3.9±2.6

Lean FH through the middle: +1.9±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (637 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	−0.7	+0.5	+6.1±1.5
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	−0.7	+0.7	+8.8±2.4
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	+3.1	+0.5	−0.6±1.7
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	+2.1	+0.3	+6.5±3.3
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	+0.7	+1.0	+2.2±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (756 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH through the middle	36%	−3.5	+0.2	+0.3	−3.0±2.0
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	+0.4	−1.6	−1.4±3.2
FH down the line	26%	−1.8	−2.0	−2.6	−6.4±3.5
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+0.7	−0.8	−12.7±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (259 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH through the middle	25%	−2.9	−1.1	+0.6	−3.4±1.7
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	−1.0	+0.9	+0.9±2.2
FH inside-out	15%	+1.0	−1.5	−2.6	−3.1±2.7
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	−3.0	±0.0	−3.2±3.8
FH through the middle	12%	−2.9	−1.5	+0.3	−4.1±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (591 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Novak Djokovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+8.8±6.0	+6.1	+2.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+6.4±3.2	+1.6	+4.8
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+6.1±6.7	+3.6	+2.5
BH slice to their backhand · return	+4.5±2.6	+1.5	+3.0
Smash to their forehand · rally	+4.1±4.7	+1.6	+2.6
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.0±5.0	+0.7	+3.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−6.3±4.9	−0.5	−5.8
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−3.5±3.2	+0.5	−4.0
BH slice to the middle · rally	−3.4±2.0	−1.1	−2.3
BH slice to their forehand · return	−3.0±4.0	−0.7	−2.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.5±3.5	−0.7	−1.9

Carlos Moya

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · return	+7.3±2.4	+5.5	+1.8
FH slice to the middle · return	+5.6±2.4	+4.3	+1.3
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+5.0±6.0	+0.3	+4.7
BH to their backhand · return	+4.8±3.5	+2.1	+2.7
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	+4.6±3.6	+3.4	+1.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+4.2±2.5	+2.6	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−7.7±5.9	−3.5	−4.3
FH to their forehand · return	−5.8±4.5	−3.8	−1.9
FH to their backhand · return	−4.0±3.9	−3.9	−0.1
BH to their forehand · return	−3.0±4.8	−2.5	−0.5
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.7±2.6	−1.6	−1.1

Against Carlos Moya-like opponents

Novak Djokovic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.9%	40.4%
Players most similar to Carlos Moya	11	64.0%	39.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Aleksandar Vukic, Dominic Thiem, Radu Albot, Kyle Edmund, Tommy Robredo, Kevin King, Albert Costa, Alex Corretja, Magnus Norman, Jim Courier. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.