Game plan
Novak Djokovic v Nikolay Davydenko
Every number combines what Novak Djokovic does well with what Nikolay Davydenko allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Novak Djokovic's record against Nikolay Davydenko's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.0 on serve, −2.2 on return vs expectation (3480 points); head-to-head: +2.1 on serve, −4.7 on return vs expectation (514 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Novak | Nikolay |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.04 ±0.02 better than 70% | −0.01 ±0.06 better than 56% |
| Shot selection | +0.04 ±0.03 better than 58% | +0.02 ±0.07 better than 54% |
| Execution | +1.17 ±0.10 better than 97% | +0.14 ±0.29 better than 74% |
| Points left on the table | 2.24 ±0.03 lower than 89% | 2.24 ±0.09 lower than 89% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Novak Djokovic serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Novak wins | v Nikolay | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 74% | 72% | 73.0%±2.5 | 59% ▲ |
| Body | 9% | 67% | 62% | 66.2%±5.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 76% | 73% | 73.8%±2.6 | 41% ▼ |
Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Novak wins | v Nikolay | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 51% | 74% | 69% | 69.9%±2.8 | 47% ▼ |
| Body | 9% | 63% | 61% | 60.7%±7.0 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 73% | 69% | 69.3%±3.0 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Nikolay Davydenko serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Nikolay wins | v Novak | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 70% | 69% | 65.7%±3.0 | 51% ▲ |
| Body | 12% | 60% | 58% | 54.2%±5.0 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 51% | 71% | 71% | 66.9%±2.8 | 49% ▼ |
Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.9±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Nikolay wins | v Novak | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 67% | 69% | 62.7%±2.9 | 47% ▼ |
| Body | 10% | 66% | 57% | 59.3%±5.7 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 68% | 69% | 64.8%±3.3 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.1±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Novak Djokovic returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nikolay | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +5.1±1.2 |
| FH down the line | 20% | +1.7 | +1.9 | −1.0 | +2.6±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 18% | +5.5 | +0.3 | −0.7 | +5.1±2.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | +1.5 | +2.2 | −0.5±1.8 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.4 | −0.3 | −3.2±2.7 |
| BH inside-in | 0% | +7.7 | +2.5 | +0.3 | +10.5±3.0 |
Lean BH inside-in: +6.6±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nikolay | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | +0.5 | +2.6 | +9.5±1.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 24% | +8.8 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +10.5±1.7 |
| BH slice through the middle | 15% | −4.2 | −0.2 | +2.6 | −1.8±1.3 |
| BH down the line | 11% | +4.2 | +2.2 | +1.2 | +7.6±2.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 8% | +0.5 | −1.0 | +4.8 | +4.3±1.9 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nikolay | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 54% | −3.5 | +1.3 | +0.2 | −1.9±1.7 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +1.5 | −0.1 | −0.4±3.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 16% | −0.2 | +1.5 | −1.9 | −0.6±3.2 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | −1.2 | +1.6 | +0.5±1.7 |
| BH inside-out | 1% | +0.9 | −0.4 | +1.5 | +1.9±3.9 |
Lean BH inside-out: +3.2±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nikolay | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 43% | +1.0 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | +2.4±1.8 |
| BH through the middle | 43% | −2.9 | +0.7 | +1.6 | −0.6±1.3 |
| BH down the line | 10% | −0.2 | +2.0 | +1.5 | +3.2±3.5 |
| FH through the middle | 2% | −2.9 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −3.6±2.1 |
| FH inside-out | 1% | +1.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9±3.5 |
Lean BH down the line: +2.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Nikolay Davydenko returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 43% | +4.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +3.9±1.3 |
| FH down the line | 23% | +1.7 | −1.1 | −0.2 | +0.4±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | +5.5 | −2.3 | +0.6 | +3.7±2.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | −1.2 | +1.0 | −4.4±1.7 |
| FH slice down the line | 3% | −4.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −4.5±2.6 |
Lean FH through the middle: +1.9±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1320 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 43% | +6.4 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +7.3±1.2 |
| BH crosscourt | 21% | +8.8 | −0.6 | +0.7 | +8.9±2.0 |
| BH down the line | 15% | +4.2 | +3.7 | +0.3 | +8.2±3.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 11% | −4.2 | −1.4 | +0.5 | −5.1±1.7 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 5% | +0.5 | −2.2 | +1.0 | −0.7±2.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1258 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | −3.5 | +1.9 | +0.3 | −1.4±1.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 26% | −0.2 | −0.2 | −1.6 | −2.0±3.1 |
| FH down the line | 25% | −1.8 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −6.9±3.3 |
| BH through the middle | 3% | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6±1.2 |
Lean FH through the middle: +1.5±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 47% | −2.9 | +0.9 | +0.6 | −1.4±1.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 36% | +1.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +2.4±1.6 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.2 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.9±3.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1069 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Novak Djokovic
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | +7.2±6.7 | +2.9 | +4.3 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | +5.6±3.1 | +2.5 | +3.1 |
| FH slice to their backhand · rally | +4.3±4.5 | +1.0 | +3.3 |
| BH to their forehand · return | +4.3±3.8 | +1.7 | +2.6 |
| FH slice to the middle · return | +3.2±2.3 | +1.0 | +2.2 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.7±1.6 | −0.5 | +3.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | −7.0±6.4 | −2.4 | −4.6 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | −4.2±2.1 | −0.7 | −3.4 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −3.2±2.2 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| BH slice to their forehand · return | −3.1±3.7 | −2.6 | −0.5 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return +1 | −3.0±3.0 | −0.3 | −2.7 |
Nikolay Davydenko
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +4.6±7.0 | +2.1 | +2.5 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +3.7±3.3 | +2.7 | +1.1 |
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +3.2±6.8 | +0.5 | +2.7 |
| BH to their forehand · return | +3.1±3.7 | +1.2 | +1.9 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | +2.7±6.8 | +4.6 | −1.9 |
| Smash to their backhand · rally | +2.2±4.6 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | −3.8±3.1 | −5.0 | +1.2 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | −3.3±3.1 | −5.2 | +1.9 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −2.8±2.7 | −4.0 | +1.2 |
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | −2.8±4.3 | −3.0 | +0.3 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | −2.3±6.5 | −3.9 | +1.6 |
Against Nikolay Davydenko-like opponents
| Novak Djokovic v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 66.9% | 40.4% |
| Players most similar to Nikolay Davydenko | 20 | 66.4% | 38.6% |
| Nikolay Davydenko (charted head-to-head) | 3 | 65.8% | 36.5% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov, Borna Coric, Fernando Verdasco, Denis Istomin, Viktor Troicki, David Nalbandian, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.