RallyIQ

Game plan

Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal

Every number combines what Novak Djokovic does well with what Rafael Nadal allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Novak Djokovic wins, best of 3 69%90%: 57%–79% · best of 5: 73%
Serve points won 65.9% / 62.0% Novak / Rafael · tour 65.7%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 60%serve 66.6% / 64.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Novak Djokovic's record against Rafael Nadal's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.6 on serve, +1.9 on return vs expectation (5512 points); head-to-head: −0.4 on serve, +1.9 on return vs expectation (8624 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerNovakRafael
Direction choice+0.04 ±0.02
better than 70%		+0.02 ±0.03
better than 62%
Shot selection+0.04 ±0.03
better than 58%		+0.38 ±0.05
better than 85%
Execution+1.17 ±0.10
better than 97%		+1.32 ±0.10
better than 99%
Points left on the table2.24 ±0.03
lower than 89%		2.66 ±0.04
lower than 43%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Novak Djokovic +0.93, Rafael Nadal +1.88. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Novak Djokovic serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowNovak winsv RafaelMatchupOptimal
Wide46%74%66%67.5%±1.342% ▼
Body9%67%58%62.0%±3.00% ▼
T45%76%74%75.3%±1.458% ▲

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.5±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowNovak winsv RafaelMatchupOptimal
Wide51%74%71%72.6%±1.464% ▲
Body9%63%57%57.2%±3.10% ▼
T40%73%66%67.0%±1.536% ▼

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.6±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Rafael Nadal serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowRafael winsv NovakMatchupOptimal
Wide31%75%69%70.5%±1.644% ▲
Body18%64%58%58.6%±2.45% ▼
T51%69%71%65.2%±1.551%

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.9±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowRafael winsv NovakMatchupOptimal
Wide54%71%69%67.8%±1.454%
Body18%67%57%60.7%±2.65% ▼
T28%75%69%71.9%±1.741% ▲

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.5±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Novak Djokovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
FH through the middle49%+4.3+0.5−0.9+3.9±0.7
FH down the line20%+1.7+1.9+0.1+3.7±1.7
FH crosscourt18%+5.5+0.3+1.7+7.5±1.4
FH slice through the middle8%−4.2+1.5±0.0−2.7±1.3
FH slice down the line2%−4.3+1.4−3.6−6.5±2.8
BH inside-in0%+7.7+2.5+4.3+14.4±2.6

Lean BH inside-in: +10.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
BH through the middle38%+6.4+0.5+0.7+7.6±0.6
BH crosscourt24%+8.8+1.4+4.3+14.4±1.1
BH slice through the middle15%−4.2−0.2+1.9−2.5±0.9
BH down the line11%+4.2+2.2−1.0+5.4±1.6
BH slice crosscourt8%+0.5−1.0+3.6+3.1±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.1±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
FH through the middle54%−3.5+1.3−0.4−2.6±1.0
FH down the line28%−1.8+1.5+0.4+0.2±2.3
FH crosscourt16%−0.2+1.5−0.7+0.6±2.3
BH through the middle1%+0.1−1.2+0.1−1.0±1.5
BH inside-out1%+0.9−0.4−1.3−0.9±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
BH crosscourt43%+1.0+1.4−0.2+2.3±1.1
BH through the middle43%−2.9+0.7+0.1−2.1±0.7
BH down the line10%−0.2+2.0−1.3+0.4±2.5
FH through the middle2%−2.9−0.9−0.4−4.2±1.7
FH inside-out1%+1.0+0.1+0.4+1.5±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±0.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted)

Rafael Nadal returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
FH through the middle46%+4.3+0.4−0.4+4.3±0.7
FH crosscourt31%+5.5+2.4−0.2+7.7±1.3
FH down the line16%+1.7−0.8+0.6+1.4±1.8
FH slice through the middle3%−4.2+0.1+1.0−3.1±1.5
FH slice crosscourt2%−4.3+7.5−0.1+3.1±2.3
BH inside-out0%+6.3+1.4+0.7+8.4±2.6

Lean BH inside-out: +3.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
BH through the middle38%+6.4−0.2+0.5+6.6±0.6
BH crosscourt19%+8.8−1.2+0.3+7.9±1.3
BH slice through the middle17%−4.2+2.1+0.5−1.6±0.8
BH down the line15%+4.2+3.3+0.7+8.2±1.5
BH slice down the line7%−8.4+5.7+1.0−1.8±1.6
FH inside-in0%+8.0+2.3−0.2+10.1±2.9

Lean FH inside-in: +5.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
FH crosscourt48%−0.2+0.7−2.6−2.1±1.7
FH through the middle33%−3.5−2.6+0.3−5.9±1.2
FH down the line17%−1.8+3.8−1.6+0.5±2.5
BH inside-out1%+0.9+0.3+0.9+2.0±2.7
FH slice through the middle1%−12.7−0.2−0.8−13.6±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +3.4±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
BH through the middle35%−2.9+2.0+0.6−0.3±0.7
BH crosscourt28%+1.0−1.0±0.0±0.0±1.3
BH down the line17%−0.2+1.8+0.9+2.4±1.8
FH through the middle9%−2.9+1.2+0.3−1.4±1.1
FH inside-in8%+0.6+1.5−2.6−0.5±2.1

Lean BH down the line: +2.4±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Novak Djokovic

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH volley to the middle · serve +1+13.7±5.8+10.3+3.4
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1+11.6±6.3+6.1+5.5
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1+11.6±7.0+8.7+2.9
FH volley to their backhand · rally+10.6±6.2+4.0+6.6
BH volley to their forehand · rally+9.9±6.2−0.6+10.5
BH volley to the middle · rally+9.1±6.9+7.2+1.9

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally−9.2±6.1±0.0−9.2
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1−8.2±3.8−4.6−3.6
Smash to their forehand · rally−6.1±5.0+1.6−7.7
BH volley to their backhand · rally−5.4±6.2+0.6−6.0
BH lob to their backhand · return +1−4.6±6.1+0.5−5.2

Rafael Nadal

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally+21.4±6.5+16.7+4.7
Smash to the middle · rally+17.6±6.3+7.4+10.1
FH volley to their backhand · rally+13.6±6.5+10.3+3.3
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1+12.9±7.6+9.4+3.5
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1+11.7±5.8+5.5+6.2
FH volley to the middle · rally+9.9±7.6+8.8+1.1

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH slice to their forehand · rally−8.7±4.6−6.1−2.6
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1−6.5±6.7−3.3−3.2
FH volley to their forehand · rally−5.3±6.3−1.0−4.3
BH lob to their backhand · return +1−4.4±5.9−1.1−3.4
FH lob to their backhand · rally−2.7±5.5+1.3−4.1

Against Rafael Nadal-like opponents

Novak Djokovic vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–66.9%40.4%
Players most similar to Rafael Nadal32 65.5%42.2%
Rafael Nadal (charted head-to-head)52 62.7%39.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cameron Norrie, Lorenzo Musetti, Mariano Navone, Yoshihito Nishioka, Albert Ramos, Federico Delbonis, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head