Game plan

Rafael Nadal v Ivo Karlovic

Every number combines what Rafael Nadal does well with what Ivo Karlovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Rafael Nadal wins, best of 3 80%90%: 72%–87% · best of 5: 85%

Serve points won 75.8% / 68.4% Rafael / Ivo · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 85%serve 75.8% / 66.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Rafael Nadal's record against Ivo Karlovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: ±0.0 on serve, −6.1 on return vs expectation (907 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Rafael	Ivo
Direction choice	+0.02 ±0.03 better than 62%	−0.09 ±0.11 better than 32%
Shot selection	+0.38 ±0.05 better than 85%	+0.49 ±0.20 better than 92%
Execution	+1.32 ±0.10 better than 99%	−2.18 ±0.54 better than 1%
Points left on the table	2.66 ±0.04 lower than 43%	4.41 ±0.22 lower than 2%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Rafael Nadal serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Ivo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	75%	81%	81.9%±3.0	44% ▲
Body	18%	64%	79%	79.2%±4.3	5% ▼
T	51%	69%	84%	79.5%±2.9	51%

Optimal v Ivo Karlovic: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Ivo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	71%	78%	76.8%±3.0	54%
Body	18%	67%	72%	75.4%±4.8	5% ▼
T	28%	75%	81%	83.6%±2.9	41% ▲

Optimal v Ivo Karlovic: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ivo Karlovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ivo wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	84%	66%	79.0%±3.1	39% ▼
Body	8%	66%	58%	61.4%±6.9	0% ▼
T	48%	82%	74%	81.2%±2.7	61% ▲

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ivo wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	62%	82%	71%	80.8%±2.6	75% ▲
Body	7%	66%	57%	60.5%±8.2	0% ▼
T	31%	78%	66%	73.1%±3.9	25% ▼

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Rafael Nadal returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivo	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+0.4	−2.9	+1.8±1.7
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+2.4	−0.1	+7.8±2.9
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−0.8	−1.9	−1.0±3.4
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.1	−2.3	−6.4±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+7.5	+1.2	+4.3±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivo	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	−0.2	−0.5	+5.7±1.5
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−1.2	−0.1	+7.5±2.6
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+2.1	−3.2	−5.3±1.7
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.3	−0.3	+7.2±3.0
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+5.7	−2.8	−5.5±2.8
FH inside-in	0%	+8.0	+2.3	−0.1	+10.2±3.8

Lean FH inside-in: +6.8±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivo	Value
FH crosscourt	48%	−0.2	+0.7	−2.2	−1.8±3.3
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	−2.6	−2.0	−8.1±2.0
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+3.8	−0.6	+1.4±4.0
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	+0.3	+2.7	+3.8±3.7
FH slice through the middle	1%	−12.7	−0.2	−2.3	−15.1±2.2

Lean FH down the line: +4.8±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivo	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	+2.0	−2.2	−3.1±1.5
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	−1.0	−2.6	−2.6±2.5
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	+1.8	+2.7	+4.2±3.3
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	+1.2	−2.0	−3.6±1.7
FH inside-in	8%	+0.6	+1.5	−2.2	−0.1±3.6

Lean BH down the line: +5.7±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted)

Ivo Karlovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	−2.9	−0.9	+0.5±1.6
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+0.5	+1.7	+7.7±3.0
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−1.2	+0.1	+0.6±3.3
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.2	±0.0	−4.0±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	+0.3	+1.5	−2.5±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (634 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
BH slice through the middle	58%	−4.2	+1.0	+1.9	−1.3±1.2
BH slice crosscourt	23%	+0.5	−1.3	+3.6	+2.8±2.1
BH slice down the line	15%	−8.4	±0.0	−3.0	−11.4±2.6
BH through the middle	3%	+6.4	−3.3	+0.7	+3.8±1.9
BH crosscourt	2%	+8.8	−5.6	+4.3	+7.5±2.3

Lean BH through the middle: +5.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (924 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	−5.1	−0.4	−9.0±2.1
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	−3.4	−0.7	−4.4±3.4
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	−2.3	+0.4	−3.6±3.6
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	−0.1	+0.1	−12.6±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +3.0±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (163 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
BH slice through the middle	38%	−11.3	−1.1	−0.9	−13.3±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	20%	−4.0	−1.5	−2.6	−8.1±2.5
FH inside-in	14%	+0.6	−4.2	−0.7	−4.3±3.3
FH through the middle	12%	−2.9	−0.6	−0.4	−3.9±1.8
BH slice down the line	10%	−9.3	−1.0	−2.9	−13.2±4.3
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	−2.1	+0.4	−0.7±2.9

Lean FH inside-out: +8.4±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (506 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Rafael Nadal

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+10.3±3.6	+3.1	+7.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+6.7±3.6	+1.0	+5.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	+4.6±3.7	−0.3	+4.9
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.7±2.6	+2.0	+1.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	+3.5±4.8	+2.4	+1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.3±2.3	+2.9	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return +1	−8.7±3.0	−0.8	−7.9
BH slice to their backhand · return	−8.4±3.1	−1.0	−7.5
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−8.2±2.6	−0.8	−7.4
FH slice to the middle · return	−7.0±2.8	−0.5	−6.5
BH to the middle · return +1	−5.7±2.9	+1.5	−7.2

Ivo Karlovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+12.0±6.4	+4.5	+7.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.6±4.0	+7.2	−0.6
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+6.0±6.1	+2.3	+3.7
BH volley to the middle · rally	+5.2±7.0	+4.4	+0.8
BH slice to their forehand · return +1	+4.4±3.8	−0.7	+5.1
FH volley to the middle · serve +1	+2.3±6.1	+1.6	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1	−9.3±5.3	−5.5	−3.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	−9.0±3.4	−6.5	−2.5
FH to the middle · return +1	−7.4±2.7	−6.7	−0.6
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−6.1±2.3	−2.7	−3.5
FH to the middle · rally	−6.1±2.7	−5.4	−0.6

Against Ivo Karlovic-like opponents

Rafael Nadal v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.0%	40.1%
Players most similar to Ivo Karlovic	4	70.7%	31.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Steve Johnson, Nicolas Mahut, Gilles Muller, Tim Henman, Max Mirnyi, Greg Rusedski, Mark Philippoussis, Patrick Rafter, Richard Krajicek, Boris Becker. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.