Game plan

Roberto Carballes Baena v Mikhail Kukushkin

Every number combines what Roberto Carballes Baena does well with what Mikhail Kukushkin allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Roberto Carballes Baena wins, best of 3 65%90%: 32%–89% · best of 5: 68%

Serve points won 65.1% / 62.1% Roberto / Mikhail · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 69%serve 65.8% / 61.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roberto Carballes Baena's record against Mikhail Kukushkin's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −4.8 on serve, −1.5 on return vs expectation (470 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Roberto	Mikhail
Direction choice	−0.06 ±0.09 better than 41%	−0.01 ±0.12 better than 54%
Shot selection	+0.14 ±0.19 better than 68%	−0.15 ±0.17 better than 33%
Execution	+0.70 ±0.38 better than 89%	−0.47 ±0.63 better than 46%
Points left on the table	2.61 ±0.12 lower than 48%	2.16 ±0.18 lower than 95%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Roberto Carballes Baena serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Mikhail	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	68%	69%	63.2%±7.2	45%
Body	12%	56%	53%	45.5%±11.9	0% ▼
T	42%	72%	80%	77.4%±6.1	55% ▲

Optimal v Mikhail Kukushkin: +1.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +10.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Mikhail	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	63%	72%	62.3%±7.2	48% ▼
Body	15%	61%	73%	71.0%±10.5	28% ▲
T	25%	63%	69%	59.3%±8.7	24%

Optimal v Mikhail Kukushkin: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +8.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Mikhail Kukushkin serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Mikhail wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	69%	71%	66.9%±6.6	61% ▲
Body	12%	57%	62%	55.3%±13.0	0% ▼
T	40%	71%	75%	70.9%±7.1	39% ▼

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Mikhail wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	67%	73%	67.9%±6.9	65% ▲
Body	15%	57%	63%	56.7%±13.7	2% ▼
T	33%	65%	73%	66.7%±7.8	33%

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Roberto Carballes Baena returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mikhail	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	+1.9	+2.4	+8.5±2.6
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+2.6	+3.5	+7.8±4.3
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+0.3	+2.5	+8.3±4.4
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	+1.9	−3.1±2.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.3	+1.1	−1.9±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.8±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (452 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mikhail	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.1	+0.7	+7.2±2.4
BH crosscourt	37%	+8.8	+2.0	+0.3	+11.1±3.3
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	+1.9	−1.9±2.5
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+0.4	+1.8	+6.4±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−0.1	+0.3	+0.8±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (393 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mikhail	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+0.9	+0.5	−2.1±2.9
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−0.8	+2.0	−0.6±4.6
FH crosscourt	13%	−0.2	+1.0	+0.1	+0.9±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (148 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mikhail	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.9	+1.1	+1.2±3.1
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.5	−2.4±2.4
FH inside-out	11%	+1.0	−0.1	+2.0	+2.8±3.6
FH through the middle	11%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.5	−1.5±2.4
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	−0.3	−0.6	−1.1±4.5

Lean FH inside-out: +3.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (297 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Mikhail Kukushkin returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+0.3	+1.6	+6.1±2.6
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+2.5	+3.3	+11.3±4.3
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+0.2	−1.2	+0.7±4.5
FH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−0.9	−0.6	−5.8±2.2
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−0.2	+0.1	−4.4±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.1±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (283 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH crosscourt	32%	+8.8	−3.2	+0.6	+6.2±3.3
BH through the middle	31%	+6.4	+0.5	+1.3	+8.2±2.5
BH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	+0.9	−1.2	−4.6±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	15%	+0.5	−3.4	−2.1	−5.0±3.0
BH down the line	4%	+4.2	−0.9	−1.0	+2.3±4.1

Lean BH through the middle: +5.4±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (268 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	+0.9	+0.4	−2.2±2.7
FH down the line	33%	−1.8	+3.6	±0.0	+1.8±4.4
FH crosscourt	18%	−0.2	−0.4	+0.8	+0.2±3.8

Lean FH down the line: +2.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (55 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.9	+0.6	+1.1	−1.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	40%	+1.0	−3.5	+0.6	−1.9±3.2
BH down the line	16%	−0.2	+2.0	−2.4	−0.6±4.8

Lean BH down the line: +0.7±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (136 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Roberto Carballes Baena

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+5.9±3.6	+1.6	+4.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.0±3.8	+2.9	+2.1
FH to their backhand · return +1	+4.5±5.2	−0.5	+5.0
FH to their forehand · return	+4.3±5.6	+1.2	+3.0
FH to the middle · rally	+3.9±2.6	+2.6	+1.3
FH to their backhand · return	+3.8±3.6	−0.2	+4.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.8±2.9	−1.8	−2.0
BH to the middle · return	−2.7±2.8	+0.8	−3.5
BH slice to the middle · rally	−1.1±2.7	−1.4	+0.3
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.5±3.1	−0.2	−0.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	−0.3±4.2	+1.8	−2.0

Mikhail Kukushkin

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+3.0±2.8	+0.2	+2.7
FH to the middle · return +1	+2.9±2.8	+0.2	+2.6
FH to their forehand · return	+2.7±5.2	+0.5	+2.2
FH to their backhand · return	+2.4±5.0	+3.3	−1.0
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.1±4.3	+1.0	+1.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.9±5.1	−1.5	+3.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.7±4.6	−2.1	−1.6
BH to their forehand · return	−3.2±5.5	−1.9	−1.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.8±5.0	−2.7	−0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.4±2.9	−4.0	+1.6
BH to their backhand · return	−1.5±4.0	−2.9	+1.4

Against Mikhail Kukushkin-like opponents

Roberto Carballes Baena v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.8%	35.6%
Players most similar to Mikhail Kukushkin	3	52.9%	32.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Hubert Hurkacz, Valentin Vacherot, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Jaume Munar, Laslo Djere, Alex Michelsen, Kei Nishikori, Pablo Andujar. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.