RallyIQ

Game plan

Roger Federer v Fernando Gonzalez

Every number combines what Roger Federer does well with what Fernando Gonzalez allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Roger Federer wins, best of 3 83%90%: 71%–91% · best of 5: 89%
Serve points won 69.3% / 61.4% Roger / Fernando · tour 61.3%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 77%serve 67.6% / 61.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roger Federer's record against Fernando Gonzalez's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.1 on serve, −0.4 on return vs expectation (6135 points); head-to-head: +4.8 on serve, +1.6 on return vs expectation (1527 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerRogerFernando
Direction choice+0.04 ±0.02
better than 68%		+0.17 ±0.06
better than 91%
Shot selection+0.18 ±0.03
better than 72%		−0.36 ±0.12
better than 19%
Execution+0.08 ±0.09
better than 72%		+0.08 ±0.42
better than 72%
Points left on the table2.74 ±0.04
lower than 35%		2.62 ±0.11
lower than 47%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Roger Federer serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowRoger winsv FernandoMatchupOptimal
Wide46%76%76%78.9%±2.659% ▲
Body8%68%68%72.8%±5.00% ▼
T46%81%70%77.5%±2.441% ▼

Optimal v Fernando Gonzalez: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowRoger winsv FernandoMatchupOptimal
Wide56%78%73%78.9%±2.349% ▼
Body6%64%66%67.0%±6.60% ▼
T38%76%75%78.2%±2.851% ▲

Optimal v Fernando Gonzalez: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Fernando Gonzalez serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowFernando winsv RogerMatchupOptimal
Wide43%71%69%67.1%±3.140% ▼
Body10%64%63%63.7%±5.40% ▼
T47%81%70%76.9%±3.060% ▲

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowFernando winsv RogerMatchupOptimal
Wide56%71%68%66.3%±3.052% ▼
Body5%63%61%61.1%±8.018% ▲
T39%73%67%68.1%±3.630% ▼

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Roger Federer returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv FernandoValue
FH through the middle49%+4.3+0.3+0.7+5.2±1.4
FH down the line25%+1.7−0.4−1.0+0.3±2.6
FH crosscourt17%+5.5−0.6+1.2+6.1±2.7
FH slice through the middle5%−4.2+2.8+2.4+1.0±1.8
FH slice down the line2%−4.3+1.9+0.4−2.0±2.9
BH through the middle0%+6.6+0.6±0.0+7.1±2.4

Lean BH through the middle: +3.4±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv FernandoValue
BH slice through the middle26%−4.2+2.2+2.3+0.3±1.4
BH through the middle25%+6.4−0.8±0.0+5.7±1.4
BH slice crosscourt23%+0.5+3.3±0.0+3.8±1.8
BH crosscourt14%+8.8−2.0+0.3+7.1±1.9
BH down the line8%+4.2+1.0+1.9+7.1±3.1
FH inside-out0%+8.6+0.5−1.0+8.1±3.3

Lean FH inside-out: +4.4±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv FernandoValue
FH through the middle45%−3.5+0.5+1.1−1.8±1.7
FH down the line28%−1.8+1.2+1.3+0.7±3.1
FH crosscourt20%−0.2−1.5−0.7−2.4±3.2
BH slice through the middle2%−6.9+1.5+0.8−4.6±2.2
BH through the middle1%+0.1+0.3+1.4+1.8±1.8

Lean BH through the middle: +3.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv FernandoValue
BH slice crosscourt25%−4.0+1.4−2.9−5.5±1.8
BH through the middle22%−2.9−1.4+1.4−2.9±1.3
BH slice through the middle16%−11.3+1.0+0.8−9.5±1.8
BH crosscourt14%+1.0−2.3−0.7−2.0±1.7
BH down the line8%−0.2−0.3−2.6−3.1±3.8
FH inside-out3%+1.0−1.3+1.3+1.0±2.8

Lean FH inside-out: +5.3±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)

Fernando Gonzalez returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
FH through the middle29%+4.3−1.9−0.9+1.4±1.7
FH crosscourt22%+5.5−5.3−0.8−0.6±2.7
FH down the line19%+1.7−0.3−2.0−0.6±2.9
FH slice through the middle17%−4.2+1.4−0.4−3.2±1.6
FH slice down the line8%−4.3+3.0−0.4−1.7±2.6

Lean FH through the middle: +2.1±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (852 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
BH slice through the middle26%−4.2+4.9−0.8−0.1±1.3
BH through the middle23%+6.4−0.4−1.4+4.6±1.5
BH slice crosscourt17%+0.5+3.9±0.0+4.3±1.8
BH down the line14%+4.2−2.8−3.0−1.5±2.9
BH crosscourt12%+8.8−1.2−0.8+6.8±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1298 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
FH crosscourt35%−0.2−1.4−1.5−3.2±3.1
FH through the middle28%−3.5−1.6−1.3−6.3±2.1
FH down the line18%−1.8+3.1−1.4−0.1±3.5
FH slice down the line10%−9.4+0.5−1.3−10.3±3.1
FH slice through the middle7%−12.7+2.1−0.1−10.7±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +4.9±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (314 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
BH slice crosscourt19%−4.0+0.2−2.5−6.4±1.9
BH through the middle17%−2.9+0.7−0.7−2.8±1.7
FH inside-out15%+1.0+3.7−1.4+3.2±2.5
FH through the middle12%−2.9−2.5−1.3−6.6±1.7
BH down the line11%−0.2−4.5−1.0−5.8±3.6
FH inside-in5%+0.6+5.0−1.5+4.0±3.3

Lean FH inside-in: +8.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (822 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Roger Federer

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
Smash to their forehand · rally+5.4±5.4+2.1+3.3
BH slice to their forehand · return+4.1±3.9+2.3+1.8
BH to their forehand · return +1+4.0±4.7−0.6+4.6
FH volley to their forehand · rally+3.5±6.6+0.8+2.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1+3.3±2.9+1.6+1.7
Smash to their backhand · rally+3.3±5.6+1.6+1.7

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1−5.5±4.9+1.0−6.5
BH to their forehand · return−4.8±4.2−1.8−3.0
BH slice to their forehand · rally−4.0±3.9+0.4−4.4
BH slice to the middle · rally−3.9±2.4−1.4−2.5
BH to the middle · rally−3.3±1.8−0.4−2.9

Fernando Gonzalez

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH slice to the middle · return+5.7±2.0+6.2−0.5
BH slice to their backhand · return+4.7±2.6+3.8+0.9
BH to their backhand · return +1+3.9±3.0+3.9±0.0
FH slice to their backhand · return+2.1±3.1+0.9+1.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.0±2.9+3.5−2.5
BH to their backhand · rally+0.5±2.1+1.3−0.8

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally−8.7±7.0−6.3−2.4
BH to their forehand · return +1−7.3±4.7−4.8−2.5
BH slice to their forehand · rally−6.1±3.9−0.3−5.8
BH to their backhand · serve +1−6.1±2.9−4.2−1.9
FH drop shot to their backhand · rally−5.9±7.2+1.3−7.2

Against Fernando Gonzalez-like opponents

Roger Federer vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–69.4%39.1%
Players most similar to Fernando Gonzalez35 69.2%38.1%
Fernando Gonzalez (charted head-to-head)9 73.8%40.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Joao Fonseca, Lorenzo Musetti, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexei Popyrin, Dominic Thiem, Jeremy Chardy, Steve Johnson, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, James Blake. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head