Game plan

Yevgeny Kafelnikov v Andre Agassi

Every number combines what Yevgeny Kafelnikov does well with what Andre Agassi allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Yevgeny Kafelnikov wins, best of 3 37%90%: 18%–61% · best of 5: 34%

Serve points won 60.6% / 63.1% Yevgeny / Andre · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 28%serve 59.6% / 64.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Yevgeny Kafelnikov's record against Andre Agassi's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +8.7 on serve, +9.7 on return vs expectation (141 points); head-to-head: +1.6 on serve, +1.7 on return vs expectation (1493 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Yevgeny	Andre
Direction choice	+0.30 ±0.06 better than 98%	+0.32 ±0.03 better than 99%
Shot selection	−0.27 ±0.14 better than 26%	−0.27 ±0.09 better than 26%
Execution	−0.55 ±0.29 better than 42%	+0.69 ±0.17 better than 88%
Points left on the table	2.43 ±0.15 lower than 70%	2.13 ±0.07 lower than 97%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Yevgeny Kafelnikov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yevgeny wins	v Andre	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	72%	72%	71.3%±2.8	64% ▲
Body	7%	66%	59%	61.5%±6.8	0% ▼
T	42%	76%	77%	78.3%±2.8	36% ▼

Optimal v Andre Agassi: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yevgeny wins	v Andre	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	73%	72%	71.8%±3.1	44% ▼
Body	6%	63%	58%	57.5%±7.5	0% ▼
T	43%	69%	70%	67.4%±3.4	56% ▲

Optimal v Andre Agassi: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andre Agassi serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andre wins	v Yevgeny	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	71%	76%	74.0%±2.8	63% ▲
Body	8%	63%	60%	59.5%±7.1	0% ▼
T	41%	73%	79%	76.8%±2.8	37% ▼

Optimal v Yevgeny Kafelnikov: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andre wins	v Yevgeny	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	59%	69%	75%	70.7%±3.1	72% ▲
Body	4%	67%	62%	65.7%±7.6	0% ▼
T	37%	70%	72%	70.7%±3.2	28% ▼

Optimal v Yevgeny Kafelnikov: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Yevgeny Kafelnikov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andre	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−1.0	−0.2	+3.0±1.5
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+1.7	−1.3	+2.0±2.6
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	−0.6	−0.6	+4.3±2.6
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	−0.1	−0.8	+5.7±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (998 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andre	Value
BH through the middle	28%	+6.4	−1.2	−0.8	+4.4±1.6
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	−2.0	+1.6	+8.4±2.1
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−0.2	+2.7	−1.7±1.6
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	+0.4	+5.9	+6.8±2.1
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−0.6	+0.5	+4.2±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1105 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andre	Value
FH down the line	34%	−1.8	−0.4	+0.6	−1.6±3.3
FH through the middle	34%	−3.5	−0.1	+0.2	−3.4±2.0
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	−4.3	+0.7	−3.8±3.2
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.3	+0.5	+1.8±1.3
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	−1.2	+2.3	+2.0±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +1.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (473 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andre	Value
BH crosscourt	44%	+1.0	−1.3	+1.1	+0.7±1.6
BH through the middle	25%	−2.9	−1.3	+0.5	−3.7±1.5
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	+2.1	+2.3	+4.2±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.0	−1.5	+2.9	−2.6±2.0
BH slice through the middle	4%	−11.3	−1.7	+2.1	−10.9±2.0

Lean BH down the line: +4.8±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1049 returns charted)

Andre Agassi returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	−0.6	−0.1	+3.6±1.3
FH crosscourt	28%	+5.5	+2.7	−1.9	+6.4±2.6
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	+0.2	−0.4	+1.5±2.6
BH through the middle	0%	+6.6	−0.5	−2.0	+4.0±2.2
BH inside-in	0%	+7.7	+1.5	−3.6	+5.6±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (3807 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
BH crosscourt	39%	+8.8	+0.2	−3.6	+5.4±2.2
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	−2.4	−2.0	+2.0±1.5
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−3.3	+2.2	+3.1±3.7
BH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	−3.0	+0.6	−6.6±1.7
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−2.5	+0.4	−1.6±2.3
FH through the middle	0%	+7.7	+0.3	−0.1	+8.0±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +5.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (4263 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	+1.6	±0.0	−1.9±1.8
FH crosscourt	31%	−0.2	+1.5	+1.2	+2.5±3.3
FH down the line	26%	−1.8	+1.8	−0.1	−0.1±3.4
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	−0.8	+0.1	−0.6±1.6
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	+1.2	−0.6	+3.1±2.7

Lean BH inside-in: +3.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1567 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.0	+0.5	−0.6	+0.9±1.6
BH through the middle	26%	−2.9	−0.9	+0.1	−3.7±1.2
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+3.7	−2.8	+0.7±3.8
FH inside-out	7%	+1.0	+1.8	−0.1	+2.6±2.9
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	−0.5	±0.0	−3.4±1.9
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	+4.0	+1.2	+5.7±3.9

Lean FH inside-in: +6.3±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (3764 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.