Game plan
Yuichi Sugita v Rafael Nadal
Every number combines what Yuichi Sugita does well with what Rafael Nadal allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Yuichi Sugita's record against Rafael Nadal's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: −1.2 on serve, −3.7 on return vs expectation (162 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Yuichi Sugita serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Yuichi wins | v Rafael | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 28% | 65% | 66% | 57.9%±10.8 | 19% ▼ |
| Body | 4% | 62% | 58% | 56.9%±13.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 68% | 70% | 74% | 68.9%±7.8 | 81% ▲ |
Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Yuichi wins | v Rafael | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 58% | 58% | 71% | 56.8%±9.1 | 58% |
| Body | 13% | 63% | 57% | 57.5%±12.8 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 29% | 69% | 66% | 63.1%±11.8 | 42% ▲ |
Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Rafael Nadal serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Rafael wins | v Yuichi | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 31% | 75% | 77% | 78.7%±7.2 | 44% ▲ |
| Body | 18% | 64% | 58% | 58.9%±13.2 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 51% | 69% | 79% | 73.8%±8.9 | 51% |
Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Rafael wins | v Yuichi | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 54% | 71% | 66% | 64.0%±9.0 | 47% ▼ |
| Body | 18% | 67% | 66% | 69.2%±12.1 | 12% ▼ |
| T | 28% | 75% | 68% | 71.6%±8.2 | 41% ▲ |
Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Yuichi Sugita returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 52% | +4.3 | +1.4 | −0.9 | +4.8±2.2 |
| FH down the line | 31% | +1.7 | −2.1 | +0.1 | −0.4±3.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.5 | +0.4 | +1.7 | +7.6±2.7 |
Lean FH through the middle: +1.1±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | +1.6 | +0.7 | +8.7±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 36% | +8.8 | +1.4 | +4.3 | +14.4±2.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 15% | −4.2 | −0.2 | +1.9 | −2.5±1.5 |
| BH down the line | 11% | +4.2 | +0.4 | −1.0 | +3.6±2.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (66 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 52% | −2.9 | +1.9 | +0.1 | −0.9±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 48% | +1.0 | +1.5 | −0.2 | +2.3±2.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.6±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted)
Rafael Nadal returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Yuichi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | +4.3 | +0.4 | −1.1 | +3.6±2.2 |
| FH crosscourt | 31% | +5.5 | +2.4 | +1.2 | +9.2±2.9 |
| FH down the line | 16% | +1.7 | −0.8 | −0.5 | +0.3±3.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 3% | −4.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −4.1±1.4 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.3 | +7.5 | ±0.0 | +3.1±1.9 |
| BH inside-out | 0% | +6.3 | +1.4 | +1.6 | +9.3±3.5 |
Lean BH inside-out: +4.8±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Yuichi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +7.2±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 19% | +8.8 | −1.2 | +0.1 | +7.7±2.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 17% | −4.2 | +2.1 | +1.5 | −0.6±1.9 |
| BH down the line | 15% | +4.2 | +3.3 | +1.6 | +9.1±2.9 |
| BH slice down the line | 7% | −8.4 | +5.7 | −2.2 | −4.9±2.2 |
| FH inside-in | 0% | +8.0 | +2.3 | +1.2 | +11.6±3.8 |
Lean FH inside-in: +6.5±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Yuichi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 48% | −0.2 | +0.7 | −1.7 | −1.3±3.2 |
| FH through the middle | 33% | −3.5 | −2.6 | +1.6 | −4.5±2.1 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | +3.8 | −1.1 | +0.9±3.1 |
| BH inside-out | 1% | +0.9 | +0.3 | −0.9 | +0.2±3.9 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −12.7 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −12.8±1.3 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Yuichi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 35% | −2.9 | +2.0 | +0.7 | −0.2±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | +1.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 | +0.7±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.2 | +1.8 | −0.9 | +0.6±3.6 |
| FH through the middle | 9% | −2.9 | +1.2 | +1.6 | ±0.0±1.8 |
| FH inside-in | 8% | +0.6 | +1.5 | −1.7 | +0.4±3.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +0.6±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Yuichi Sugita
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | +4.3±2.0 | +2.1 | +2.2 |
| FH to the middle · return | +1.7±2.2 | +2.3 | −0.6 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +0.8±1.9 | +1.0 | −0.3 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.4±3.5 | −1.1 | +1.5 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −0.1±3.3 | −0.9 | +0.8 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −0.2±1.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | −4.2±3.9 | −2.5 | −1.8 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −4.2±3.8 | −5.3 | +1.1 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −3.8±2.9 | −2.5 | −1.3 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −2.1±3.2 | −0.6 | −1.5 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −0.2±1.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
Rafael Nadal
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | +5.9±3.8 | +2.5 | +3.4 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +4.5±3.7 | +1.0 | +3.5 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +4.0±3.5 | +2.6 | +1.4 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.8±1.8 | +1.0 | −0.3 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −0.2±2.2 | +1.2 | −1.4 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −0.5±2.9 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to the middle · rally | −2.5±1.9 | −0.1 | −2.4 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −0.5±2.9 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −0.2±2.2 | +1.2 | −1.4 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.8±1.8 | +1.0 | −0.3 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +4.0±3.5 | +2.6 | +1.4 |
Against Rafael Nadal-like opponents
| Yuichi Sugita v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 59.1% | 38.0% |
| Rafael Nadal (charted head-to-head) | 1 | 52.5% | 30.5% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cameron Norrie, Lorenzo Musetti, Mariano Navone, Yoshihito Nishioka, Albert Ramos, Federico Delbonis, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.