Game plan

Ivan Lendl v Sebastien Grosjean

Every number combines what Ivan Lendl does well with what Sebastien Grosjean allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Ivan Lendl wins, best of 3 85%90%: 70%–94% · best of 5: 90%

Serve points won 68.1% / 59.8% Ivan / Sebastien · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 82%serve 67.6% / 60.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Ivan Lendl's record against Sebastien Grosjean's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +18.9 on serve, +13.1 on return vs expectation (98 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Ivan	Sebastien
Direction choice	+0.07 ±0.06 better than 75%	−0.07 ±0.11 better than 38%
Shot selection	−0.70 ±0.11 better than 5%	+0.09 ±0.19 better than 64%
Execution	+0.73 ±0.21 better than 89%	−0.82 ±0.58 better than 31%
Points left on the table	2.96 ±0.11 lower than 22%	2.72 ±0.24 lower than 39%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Ivan Lendl serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ivan wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	79%	78.3%±4.6	62% ▲
Body	7%	65%	67%	68.6%±11.5	0% ▼
T	45%	77%	78%	79.6%±4.8	38% ▼

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ivan wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	73%	74%	74.2%±5.3	48% ▼
Body	6%	63%	65%	65.0%±12.0	0% ▼
T	39%	73%	69%	69.8%±5.9	52% ▲

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sebastien Grosjean serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Ivan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	73%	68%	68.3%±5.8	62% ▲
Body	7%	54%	62%	52.1%±10.8	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	68%	69.2%±6.3	38% ▼

Optimal v Ivan Lendl: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Ivan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	70%	69%	66.9%±6.1	40% ▼
Body	4%	55%	61%	53.1%±12.6	0% ▼
T	47%	72%	70%	70.8%±6.0	60% ▲

Optimal v Ivan Lendl: +0.2±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Ivan Lendl returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−1.4	−2.0	+0.9±2.2
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	+2.3	+1.9	+9.7±3.6
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	−1.4	−1.2	−0.9±3.7
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	+1.4	+0.2	−0.1±2.1
FH slice through the middle	1%	−4.2	+1.0	+1.7	−1.5±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1908 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	−0.1	+0.2	−4.1±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	21%	+0.5	+3.5	+0.1	+4.2±2.4
BH through the middle	16%	+6.4	−3.4	−1.5	+1.5±2.3
BH slice down the line	13%	−8.4	+4.5	+2.0	−1.8±2.6
BH crosscourt	11%	+8.8	+3.7	+1.0	+13.6±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +12.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (3467 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	−0.2	+0.6	+0.3	+0.7±3.9
FH through the middle	36%	−3.5	+1.9	+0.7	−0.8±2.6
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	+5.8	+4.0	+8.0±4.4
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.4	±0.0	+0.6±1.7
BH slice through the middle	1%	−6.9	+0.3	−0.2	−6.8±1.4

Lean FH down the line: +6.2±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (649 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH through the middle	21%	−2.9	−0.6	±0.0	−3.4±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	19%	−4.0	+3.5	+1.7	+1.2±2.1
BH crosscourt	18%	+1.0	+0.6	+1.5	+3.1±2.4
BH slice through the middle	12%	−11.3	+3.4	−0.2	−8.1±1.8
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−1.9	−1.9	−4.1±4.7
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	−0.8	+4.0	+4.2±3.6

Lean FH inside-out: +5.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2117 returns charted)

Sebastien Grosjean returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	+1.1	−1.2	+4.1±2.3
FH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+3.4	+2.6	+1.9±2.1
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−0.5	+1.4	+2.6±3.5
FH slice down the line	10%	−4.3	+3.5	+1.5	+0.7±3.1
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−4.5	±0.0	+1.1±3.6

Lean FH through the middle: +1.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (301 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−2.7	−2.2	+1.5±2.2
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	−1.2	+0.5	+8.0±3.0
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.2	+2.4	−1.6±1.9
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+3.6	−1.8	+6.1±4.1
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.5	+3.6	+2.7±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (272 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	+0.2	+0.9	−2.3±2.3
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−3.2	+3.2	−1.8±3.8
FH crosscourt	11%	−0.2	−1.5	+1.3	−0.4±3.1

Lean FH down the line: +0.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (79 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	+2.2	+1.2	+0.6±2.0
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	+0.9	+3.1	+5.1±2.6
FH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.2	+0.9	−2.2±1.9
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.1	+3.8	+4.7±4.2
FH inside-out	10%	+1.0	+2.5	+3.2	+6.7±3.0

Lean FH inside-out: +3.9±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (275 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Ivan Lendl

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.6±3.3	+2.2	+2.4
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.0±2.5	+1.7	+2.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	+4.0±4.4	+3.1	+0.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.9±3.4	+2.0	+1.9
FH to their backhand · return	+3.8±4.2	+1.8	+2.0
BH slice to their backhand · return	+3.1±3.2	+3.4	−0.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−6.2±2.5	−3.9	−2.3
BH to their forehand · return	−4.8±5.1	−3.5	−1.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.9±4.7	+1.2	−5.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.9±2.6	+0.7	−4.5
BH to the middle · return +1	−3.4±3.1	−2.7	−0.7

Sebastien Grosjean

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to the middle · return	+9.5±3.0	+5.0	+4.5
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+4.0±2.2	+1.5	+2.4
BH to their forehand · return	+3.9±5.2	+2.7	+1.1
BH slice to the middle · rally	+3.0±2.5	+1.2	+1.8
BH to their backhand · return	+0.9±3.3	+0.5	+0.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.3±2.0	+1.0	−0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−9.4±4.2	−7.3	−2.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−9.2±4.3	−7.5	−1.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	−9.1±4.6	−6.4	−2.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±2.9	−1.6	−2.6
BH to their backhand · return +1	−2.4±3.8	−1.2	−1.2

Against Sebastien Grosjean-like opponents

Ivan Lendl v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.1%	38.4%
Players most similar to Sebastien Grosjean	1	82.5%	48.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Rinky Hijikata, Aleksandar Vukic, Fabio Fognini, Lucas Pouille, Kyle Edmund, Andreas Seppi, Tomas Berdych, James Blake, Nicolas Kiefer, Jim Courier. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.