Game plan

Jannik Sinner v Sebastien Grosjean

Every number combines what Jannik Sinner does well with what Sebastien Grosjean allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jannik Sinner wins, best of 3 96%90%: 89%–99% · best of 5: 98%

Serve points won 69.9% / 56.1% Jannik / Sebastien · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 94%serve 69.8% / 57.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jannik Sinner's record against Sebastien Grosjean's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.2 on serve, +12.1 on return vs expectation (308 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jannik	Sebastien
Direction choice	−0.07 ±0.02 better than 40%	−0.07 ±0.11 better than 38%
Shot selection	+0.50 ±0.04 better than 93%	+0.09 ±0.19 better than 64%
Execution	+0.25 ±0.16 better than 78%	−0.82 ±0.58 better than 31%
Points left on the table	2.38 ±0.04 lower than 75%	2.72 ±0.24 lower than 39%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jannik Sinner serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jannik wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	78%	79%	82.7%±3.8	59% ▲
Body	11%	67%	67%	71.2%±10.5	0% ▼
T	43%	78%	78%	80.8%±4.5	41% ▼

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jannik wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	76%	74%	77.3%±4.7	52% ▼
Body	7%	68%	65%	69.3%±10.7	0% ▼
T	35%	76%	69%	72.9%±5.4	48% ▲

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sebastien Grosjean serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Jannik	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	73%	68%	68.5%±5.6	42% ▼
Body	7%	54%	58%	48.7%±10.7	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	72%	73.3%±5.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Jannik Sinner: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Jannik	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	70%	69%	66.8%±6.0	40% ▼
Body	4%	55%	59%	51.4%±12.4	0% ▼
T	47%	72%	66%	66.7%±6.1	60% ▲

Optimal v Jannik Sinner: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jannik Sinner returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH through the middle	57%	+4.3	+1.3	−2.0	+3.6±2.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.2	+1.9	+7.6±3.4
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−0.1	−1.2	+0.4±3.4
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	−4.2	+1.7	−6.7±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.3	−1.8	±0.0	−6.1±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.9±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (5521 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.1	−1.5	+5.0±2.1
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	−0.6	+1.0	+9.2±2.7
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+0.3	+3.4	+7.9±3.5
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−6.9	+0.2	−11.0±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−7.2	+0.1	−6.5±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (5508 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	+0.5	+0.7	−2.2±2.2
FH crosscourt	24%	−0.2	+0.5	+0.3	+0.7±3.8
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	−1.3	+4.0	+0.9±4.1
BH through the middle	0%	+0.1	+0.6	±0.0	+0.8±1.7

Lean FH down the line: +1.9±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1459 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.9	+0.6	±0.0	−2.3±1.8
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	−0.4	+1.5	+2.1±2.1
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+1.3	−1.9	−0.8±4.5
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	±0.0	+0.7	−2.1±2.4
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	+0.2	+0.3	+1.1±4.4
FH inside-out	1%	+1.0	+1.0	+4.0	+5.9±3.7

Lean FH inside-out: +6.1±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (3318 returns charted)

Sebastien Grosjean returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	+1.1	−1.6	+3.7±2.2
FH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+3.4	−1.1	−1.9±1.8
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−0.5	−4.4	−3.2±3.5
FH slice down the line	10%	−4.3	+3.5	−5.4	−6.2±2.8
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−4.5	−1.6	−0.5±3.2

Lean FH through the middle: +4.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (301 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−2.7	−0.8	+2.9±2.0
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	−1.2	−1.2	+6.4±2.7
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.2	−3.3	−7.3±1.9
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+3.6	−2.8	+5.1±3.7
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.5	−4.0	−5.0±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (272 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	+0.2	−1.0	−4.2±2.2
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−3.2	−3.0	−8.0±3.7
FH crosscourt	11%	−0.2	−1.5	−1.6	−3.3±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +1.5±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (79 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	+2.2	−0.5	−1.2±1.9
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	+0.9	−2.0	±0.0±2.4
FH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.2	−1.0	−4.1±1.8
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.1	−1.3	−0.5±4.1
FH inside-out	10%	+1.0	+2.5	−3.0	+0.5±2.9
FH inside-in	7%	+0.6	+4.4	−1.6	+3.3±3.2

Lean FH inside-in: +4.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (275 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Jannik Sinner

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.5±3.3	+1.6	+1.9
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.0±3.1	+0.6	+2.4
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.6±2.4	+0.3	+2.3
FH to their forehand · return	+2.1±4.8	+2.0	+0.1
FH to their backhand · return +1	+1.5±4.2	+0.6	+0.9
FH to their backhand · return	+1.2±4.1	−0.8	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return	−6.8±3.7	−6.5	−0.3
BH slice to the middle · return	−5.7±2.9	−6.2	+0.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.0±2.5	+0.5	−4.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.8±4.4	+1.3	−5.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.3±2.8	−3.2	−0.1

Sebastien Grosjean

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to the middle · return	+3.8±2.6	+5.0	−1.2
BH to the middle · return +1	+2.2±2.8	+1.9	+0.3
FH to the middle · return +1	+2.0±3.1	+0.4	+1.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.3±4.2	+2.1	−0.8
BH to their forehand · return	+1.2±5.0	+2.7	−1.6
BH to the middle · rally	+1.1±2.0	+1.3	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−10.8±4.1	−7.3	−3.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−10.2±4.2	−7.5	−2.8
FH to their backhand · return	−7.2±3.7	−2.6	−4.6
FH to their forehand · return +1	−6.7±4.3	−6.4	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.5±2.8	−1.6	−0.9

Against Sebastien Grosjean-like opponents

Jannik Sinner v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	68.1%	40.7%
Players most similar to Sebastien Grosjean	2	69.8%	54.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Rinky Hijikata, Aleksandar Vukic, Fabio Fognini, Lucas Pouille, Kyle Edmund, Andreas Seppi, Tomas Berdych, James Blake, Nicolas Kiefer, Jim Courier. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.