Game plan

Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Rafael Nadal

Every number combines what Jo Wilfried Tsonga does well with what Rafael Nadal allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jo Wilfried Tsonga wins, best of 3 15%90%: 6%–30% · best of 5: 9%

Serve points won 61.0% / 69.6% Jo / Rafael · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 20%serve 61.3% / 68.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jo Wilfried Tsonga's record against Rafael Nadal's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.3 on serve, −4.2 on return vs expectation (1003 points); head-to-head: +0.3 on serve, −1.6 on return vs expectation (1046 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jo	Rafael
Direction choice	+0.19 ±0.05 better than 94%	+0.02 ±0.03 better than 62%
Shot selection	+0.38 ±0.10 better than 85%	+0.38 ±0.05 better than 85%
Execution	−0.52 ±0.35 better than 44%	+1.32 ±0.10 better than 99%
Points left on the table	2.46 ±0.07 lower than 67%	2.66 ±0.04 lower than 43%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jo wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	73%	66%	66.7%±2.7	39% ▼
Body	7%	61%	58%	55.3%±6.2	0% ▼
T	48%	80%	74%	79.3%±2.3	61% ▲

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +1.1±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jo wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	77%	71%	76.3%±2.5	65% ▲
Body	5%	63%	57%	57.4%±7.2	0% ▼
T	42%	75%	66%	69.4%±2.9	35% ▼

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Rafael Nadal serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Jo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	75%	75%	76.2%±2.5	44% ▲
Body	18%	64%	68%	68.7%±4.4	5% ▼
T	51%	69%	74%	67.8%±2.7	51%

Optimal v Jo Wilfried Tsonga: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Jo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	71%	72%	70.3%±2.4	54%
Body	18%	67%	69%	72.8%±4.7	5% ▼
T	28%	75%	74%	76.9%±2.8	41% ▲

Optimal v Jo Wilfried Tsonga: +0.2±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
FH through the middle	36%	+4.3	−0.5	−0.9	+2.9±1.4
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	−0.6	+1.7	+6.6±2.4
FH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	+1.3	±0.0	−3.0±1.7
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	+0.9	+0.1	+2.7±2.9
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.3	−2.2	+1.5	−5.1±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1365 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
BH through the middle	29%	+6.4	+0.7	+0.7	+7.8±1.2
BH crosscourt	21%	+8.8	−0.3	+4.3	+12.7±1.8
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	+2.0	+1.9	−0.3±1.3
BH slice crosscourt	14%	+0.5	+3.2	+3.6	+7.3±2.0
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	+1.5	−1.0	+4.7±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.8±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1899 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+1.4	−0.7	+0.5±3.1
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	−0.2	−0.4	−4.1±2.0
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	±0.0	+0.4	−1.4±3.7
FH slice through the middle	8%	−12.7	−1.4	+0.1	−14.0±2.4
FH slice down the line	2%	−9.4	−2.0	−1.2	−12.6±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (345 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
BH through the middle	29%	−2.9	−2.7	+0.1	−5.4±1.3
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	±0.0	−0.2	+0.8±1.8
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−5.8	−1.3	−7.3±3.6
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	−1.2	−0.4	−4.5±1.7
FH inside-in	8%	+0.6	−2.2	−0.7	−2.4±3.2
FH inside-out	7%	+1.0	+1.1	+0.4	+2.5±2.9

Lean FH inside-out: +6.0±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1222 returns charted)

Rafael Nadal returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jo	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+0.4	+0.4	+5.1±1.3
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+2.4	+1.4	+9.3±2.4
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−0.8	−2.1	−1.3±2.7
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.1	+0.4	−3.7±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+7.5	−1.7	+1.4±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jo	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	−0.2	−0.4	+5.8±1.2
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−1.2	+0.7	+8.3±2.2
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+2.1	−2.3	−4.4±1.4
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.3	−0.9	+6.7±2.4
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+5.7	−0.4	−3.1±2.4
FH inside-in	0%	+8.0	+2.3	+1.4	+11.7±3.4

Lean FH inside-in: +7.9±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jo	Value
FH crosscourt	48%	−0.2	+0.7	−2.0	−1.6±2.8
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	−2.6	+0.6	−5.5±1.8
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+3.8	+0.1	+2.1±3.6
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	+0.3	+0.2	+1.4±3.0
FH slice through the middle	1%	−12.7	−0.2	±0.0	−12.8±1.8

Lean FH down the line: +4.5±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jo	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	+2.0	+0.6	−0.3±1.1
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	−1.0	−0.8	−0.8±2.0
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	+1.8	+0.2	+1.8±2.3
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	+1.2	+0.6	−1.0±1.5
FH inside-in	8%	+0.6	+1.5	−2.0	±0.0±3.1

Lean BH down the line: +1.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.