Game plan

Kei Nishikori v Nikolay Davydenko

Every number combines what Kei Nishikori does well with what Nikolay Davydenko allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Kei Nishikori wins, best of 3 30%90%: 14%–52% · best of 5: 26%

Serve points won 56.7% / 60.7% Kei / Nikolay · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 46%serve 58.3% / 59.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Kei Nishikori's record against Nikolay Davydenko's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −4.0 on serve, −4.6 on return vs expectation (1835 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Kei	Nikolay
Direction choice	+0.06 ±0.05 better than 73%	−0.01 ±0.06 better than 56%
Shot selection	−0.30 ±0.07 better than 23%	+0.02 ±0.07 better than 54%
Execution	−0.05 ±0.28 better than 66%	+0.14 ±0.29 better than 74%
Points left on the table	2.29 ±0.07 lower than 85%	2.24 ±0.09 lower than 89%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Kei Nishikori serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kei wins	v Nikolay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	70%	72%	68.7%±3.6	42%
Body	16%	62%	62%	61.4%±6.9	3% ▼
T	42%	73%	73%	70.7%±3.8	55% ▲

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kei wins	v Nikolay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	70%	69%	65.4%±4.1	47%
Body	17%	63%	61%	60.7%±7.9	4% ▼
T	36%	68%	69%	64.7%±4.4	49% ▲

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.1±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Nikolay Davydenko serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nikolay wins	v Kei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	70%	71%	67.8%±3.8	36% ▼
Body	12%	60%	65%	61.6%±6.8	0% ▼
T	51%	71%	76%	72.5%±3.6	64% ▲

Optimal v Kei Nishikori: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nikolay wins	v Kei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	67%	74%	68.3%±3.8	63% ▲
Body	10%	66%	61%	63.9%±7.5	10%
T	40%	68%	74%	70.4%±4.0	27% ▼

Optimal v Kei Nishikori: +0.2±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Kei Nishikori returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−1.1	+0.4	+3.5±1.7
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.1	−0.7	+5.9±3.1
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	+1.2	−1.0	+2.0±3.3
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+1.6	+2.2	−0.4±2.3
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	+0.4	−0.3	−4.1±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1224 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+1.9	+0.3	+11.0±2.3
BH through the middle	24%	+6.4	−1.0	+2.6	+8.0±1.8
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−1.9	+2.6	−3.5±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+1.4	+4.8	+6.7±2.4
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	−1.3	−0.9	−10.5±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1117 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+0.4	+0.2	−2.8±2.3
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	−3.1	−0.1	−5.0±4.2
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	+1.0	−1.9	−1.1±3.8
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.3	±0.0	−9.8±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (423 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.0	+2.6	±0.0	+3.6±2.2
BH through the middle	30%	−2.9	−0.7	+1.6	−2.0±1.8
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+2.2	+1.5	+3.5±4.4
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.4	+0.2	−3.1±2.1
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+1.4	−0.1	+2.2±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (845 returns charted)

Nikolay Davydenko returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	±0.0	+0.7	+4.9±1.6
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	−1.1	+2.3	+2.9±3.2
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−2.3	+0.1	+3.3±3.2
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	−1.2	+1.4	−4.0±2.2
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−0.1	+1.0	−3.4±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +2.0±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1320 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+0.5	+0.7	+7.6±1.6
BH crosscourt	21%	+8.8	−0.6	+1.8	+9.9±2.5
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.7	+2.0	+9.9±3.9
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.4	±0.0	−5.6±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−2.2	+0.7	−1.0±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1258 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	+1.9	−0.3	−1.9±2.2
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	−0.2	−0.4	−0.8±3.8
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	−2.6	+1.7	−2.6±4.2
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−0.1	+1.1	+1.1±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	+0.9	+1.1	−0.9±1.5
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.0	+0.5	+1.3	+2.9±2.0
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	−0.7	−0.5	−1.4±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1069 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Kei Nishikori

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return	+6.3±3.4	+1.7	+4.7
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+6.3±7.9	+3.9	+2.4
BH to their forehand · return	+5.2±5.1	+2.7	+2.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.3±3.7	+6.5	−2.2
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.0±5.6	+4.5	−0.5
FH slice to the middle · return	+3.6±2.7	+1.4	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	−7.6±2.7	−4.2	−3.4
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−7.3±7.8	−2.7	−4.6
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	−4.9±3.5	−2.2	−2.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.6±4.3	−1.9	−2.6
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−3.5±6.9	+0.6	−4.1

Nikolay Davydenko

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+8.4±8.1	+4.6	+3.8
BH slice to their backhand · return	+3.9±3.6	+0.9	+2.9
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.5±2.9	−0.1	+2.5
FH to their backhand · return	+2.0±3.9	−1.8	+3.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.7±4.3	+2.7	−0.9
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.6±2.6	+1.3	+0.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−7.5±5.4	−3.0	−4.5
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−7.5±4.8	−3.4	−4.1
BH to their forehand · return +1	−6.6±5.6	−0.4	−6.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−5.5±3.4	−3.0	−2.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	−4.4±4.1	−5.0	+0.6

Against Nikolay Davydenko-like opponents

Kei Nishikori v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.9%	37.6%
Players most similar to Nikolay Davydenko	12	55.3%	31.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Borna Coric, Fernando Verdasco, Denis Istomin, Viktor Troicki, David Nalbandian, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.