Game plan
Roger Federer v James Blake
Every number combines what Roger Federer does well with what James Blake allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roger Federer's record against James Blake's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.3 on serve, −2.9 on return vs expectation (6057 points); head-to-head: +1.4 on serve, +3.5 on return vs expectation (1592 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Roger | James |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.04 ±0.02 better than 68% | +0.08 ±0.07 better than 78% |
| Shot selection | +0.18 ±0.03 better than 72% | +0.03 ±0.12 better than 56% |
| Execution | +0.08 ±0.09 better than 72% | −0.86 ±0.36 better than 30% |
| Points left on the table | 2.74 ±0.04 lower than 35% | 2.49 ±0.14 lower than 62% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Roger Federer serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v James | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 76% | 76% | 79.0%±3.1 | 41% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 68% | 58% | 63.3%±6.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 81% | 76% | 82.5%±2.4 | 59% ▲ |
Optimal v James Blake: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v James | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 78% | 69% | 74.9%±2.9 | 49% ▼ |
| Body | 6% | 64% | 59% | 60.1%±7.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 76% | 72% | 75.2%±3.6 | 51% ▲ |
Optimal v James Blake: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
James Blake serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | James wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 39% | 68% | 69% | 64.3%±3.9 | 26% ▼ |
| Body | 13% | 64% | 63% | 63.5%±5.9 | 26% ▲ |
| T | 49% | 75% | 70% | 70.2%±3.8 | 48% |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | James wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 51% | 71% | 68% | 66.5%±3.9 | 64% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 58% | 61% | 55.5%±8.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 70% | 67% | 64.7%±4.2 | 36% ▼ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Roger Federer returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v James | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +4.5±1.6 |
| FH down the line | 25% | +1.7 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +2.1±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.5 | −0.6 | −3.0 | +1.9±3.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −4.2 | +2.8 | +1.0 | −0.4±1.9 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.9 | +0.1 | −2.2±2.8 |
| BH through the middle | 0% | +6.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +7.8±2.5 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.7±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v James | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 26% | −4.2 | +2.2 | +0.3 | −1.6±1.5 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | −0.8 | +0.6 | +6.3±1.6 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 23% | +0.5 | +3.3 | +2.9 | +6.7±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +8.8 | −2.0 | −1.2 | +5.7±2.3 |
| BH down the line | 8% | +4.2 | +1.0 | +0.1 | +5.3±3.4 |
| FH inside-out | 0% | +8.6 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +9.9±3.4 |
Lean FH inside-out: +6.3±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v James | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | −3.5 | +0.5 | +0.2 | −2.7±1.9 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +1.2 | +3.0 | +2.5±3.2 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | −0.2 | −1.5 | +6.0 | +4.3±3.4 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −6.9 | +1.5 | +1.3 | −4.1±2.2 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.8 | −0.3±1.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v James | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 25% | −4.0 | +1.4 | +1.3 | −1.3±1.7 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | −2.9 | −1.4 | −0.8 | −5.0±1.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | −11.3 | +1.0 | +1.3 | −9.0±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +1.0 | −2.3 | −0.6 | −1.9±1.9 |
| BH down the line | 8% | −0.2 | −0.3 | −1.6 | −2.1±3.6 |
| FH inside-in | 4% | +0.6 | +0.6 | +6.0 | +7.1±3.5 |
Lean FH inside-in: +10.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)
James Blake returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 38% | +5.5 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +4.9±2.6 |
| FH through the middle | 34% | +4.3 | −2.7 | −0.9 | +0.7±1.8 |
| FH down the line | 22% | +1.7 | −0.6 | −2.0 | −0.9±3.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 4% | −4.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −5.2±1.7 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | −4.3 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −5.2±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (587 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 25% | −4.2 | +3.0 | −0.8 | −2.0±1.5 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | −2.0 | −1.4 | +3.0±1.6 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 17% | +0.5 | +4.2 | ±0.0 | +4.7±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 16% | +8.8 | −1.4 | −0.8 | +6.6±2.3 |
| BH down the line | 11% | +4.2 | −0.1 | −3.0 | +1.2±3.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (875 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 33% | −3.5 | +0.9 | −1.3 | −3.8±2.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 31% | −0.2 | +1.6 | −1.5 | −0.2±3.3 |
| FH down the line | 26% | −1.8 | −0.5 | −1.4 | −3.7±3.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 6% | −12.7 | +1.1 | −0.1 | −11.7±1.9 |
| FH slice down the line | 3% | −9.4 | −2.1 | −1.3 | −12.8±2.5 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (159 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 35% | +1.0 | −3.3 | −0.9 | −3.2±2.0 |
| BH through the middle | 31% | −2.9 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −3.8±1.6 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.2 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.7±3.6 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 6% | −4.0 | +0.4 | −2.5 | −6.1±2.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 4% | −11.3 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −12.9±1.8 |
| FH inside-in | 3% | +0.6 | +0.5 | −1.5 | −0.5±3.0 |
Lean FH inside-in: +2.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (545 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Roger Federer
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice to the middle · return | +6.3±2.5 | +2.8 | +3.5 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +3.6±3.4 | +0.8 | +2.8 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +2.9±1.9 | +1.0 | +1.9 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.1±2.0 | +3.2 | −1.1 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | +2.1±2.8 | +1.2 | +0.9 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | +2.1±4.1 | +0.2 | +1.8 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | −4.9±6.3 | +2.4 | −7.4 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | −4.7±2.6 | −1.8 | −2.9 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −3.6±2.0 | −1.6 | −2.0 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | −3.3±2.4 | −1.1 | −2.3 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | −3.2±3.6 | +1.8 | −5.1 |
James Blake
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to the middle · return | +2.8±1.7 | +4.1 | −1.2 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +2.8±2.2 | +3.8 | −1.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +0.8±2.8 | +0.8 | −0.1 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −0.1±2.9 | +2.2 | −2.3 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −0.7±1.9 | +1.8 | −2.4 |
| BH to their forehand · return | −0.7±3.2 | +0.7 | −1.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | −7.4±6.7 | −6.0 | −1.4 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −6.3±2.2 | −2.7 | −3.6 |
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | −6.2±4.7 | −2.3 | −4.0 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | −6.0±2.6 | −3.8 | −2.2 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | −5.3±2.3 | −3.1 | −2.3 |
Against James Blake-like opponents
| Roger Federer v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 69.4% | 39.1% |
| Players most similar to James Blake | 33 | 70.4% | 35.3% |
| James Blake (charted head-to-head) | 9 | 68.8% | 43.9% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexei Popyrin, Lucas Pouille, Kyle Edmund, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Tommy Haas, Sebastien Grosjean, Jim Courier. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.
Charted head-to-head
- James Blake v Roger Federer Cincinnati Masters R16 · Hard · 18 Aug 2011
- Roger Federer v James Blake Australian Open QF · Hard · 23 Jan 2008
- Roger Federer v James Blake Cincinnati Masters F · Hard · 19 Aug 2007
- Roger Federer v James Blake Masters Cup F · Hard · 19 Nov 2006
- James Blake v Roger Federer US Open QF · Hard · 7 Sep 2006
- Roger Federer v James Blake Miami Masters QF · Hard · 24 Mar 2006
- Roger Federer v James Blake Indian Wells Masters F · Hard · 19 Mar 2006
- Roger Federer v James Blake Cincinnati Masters R64 · Hard · 15 Aug 2005
- Roger Federer v James Blake US Open R32 · Hard · 1 Sep 2003