Game plan

Sergi Bruguera v Marcelo Rios

Every number combines what Sergi Bruguera does well with what Marcelo Rios allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Sergi Bruguera wins, best of 3 5%90%: 1%–17% · best of 5: 2%

Serve points won 57.4% / 70.4% Sergi / Marcelo · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 9%serve 58.6% / 69.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Sergi Bruguera's record against Marcelo Rios's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −7.3 on serve, −5.7 on return vs expectation (585 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Sergi	Marcelo
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.08 better than 60%	+0.13 ±0.05 better than 87%
Shot selection	−0.31 ±0.17 better than 22%	−0.23 ±0.19 better than 28%
Execution	+0.28 ±0.45 better than 79%	−0.40 ±0.62 better than 48%
Points left on the table	2.58 ±0.24 lower than 51%	2.60 ±0.15 lower than 50%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Sergi Bruguera serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sergi wins	v Marcelo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	68%	68%	63.7%±6.2	48%
Body	10%	69%	66%	71.5%±9.8	23% ▲
T	42%	67%	75%	67.5%±7.0	29% ▼

Optimal v Marcelo Rios: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sergi wins	v Marcelo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	65%	68%	72%	67.0%±6.5	60% ▼
Body	8%	54%	66%	56.8%±11.4	0% ▼
T	27%	70%	69%	67.0%±7.6	40% ▲

Optimal v Marcelo Rios: +0.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Marcelo Rios serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marcelo wins	v Sergi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	67%	72%	66.3%±6.5	33% ▼
Body	6%	65%	71%	72.5%±10.4	19% ▲
T	48%	72%	73%	69.5%±6.4	48%

Optimal v Sergi Bruguera: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marcelo wins	v Sergi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	62%	70%	69%	65.8%±6.0	57% ▼
Body	8%	65%	64%	66.4%±11.3	0% ▼
T	30%	75%	72%	75.4%±7.2	43% ▲

Optimal v Sergi Bruguera: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Sergi Bruguera returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
FH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	−0.6	−1.0	−5.8±2.2
FH through the middle	25%	+4.3	−0.8	−1.0	+2.4±2.8
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−3.4	−1.3	−3.0±4.5
FH slice down the line	17%	−4.3	−1.4	−0.9	−6.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−1.6	+1.5	+5.3±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.7±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (409 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	−2.2	−1.2	+3.0±2.3
BH crosscourt	35%	+8.8	−0.1	−0.3	+8.5±3.2
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−2.3	−2.5	−0.6±4.6
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	+2.0	−1.7±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.0	+1.9	+1.4±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (489 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+2.8	−0.2	−0.8±2.7
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	+1.5	±0.0	+1.3±4.1
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+2.2	−5.3	−4.9±4.6
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−12.5	−0.4	±0.0	−12.9±1.7
FH slice down the line	4%	−9.4	+0.3	±0.0	−9.2±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (135 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marcelo	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+2.0	−0.2	+2.9±3.0
BH through the middle	34%	−2.9	−2.5	+0.9	−4.5±2.3
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−0.8	−1.5	−2.5±4.8
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	+0.2	−0.2	−2.9±2.2
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	+0.2	−5.3	−4.1±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (330 returns charted)

Marcelo Rios returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−2.6	−3.0	−1.3±2.6
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	−0.1	−2.9	+2.6±4.1
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−3.6	+1.3	−0.6±4.3
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	+0.1	+1.0	−3.1±1.8
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+0.6	+0.7	−3.0±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (327 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	−2.5	−1.1	+2.8±2.5
BH down the line	20%	+4.2	+0.1	+0.4	+4.8±4.3
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	−2.5	+1.9	+8.3±3.4
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	+0.4	+1.7	−2.1±2.3
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+1.0	+1.9	−5.4±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (493 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
FH crosscourt	50%	−0.2	+1.1	+1.7	+2.6±4.2
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	−0.6	+1.6	−2.4±2.9
FH down the line	15%	−1.8	−0.3	+2.5	+0.3±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (147 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+1.2	+0.7	−0.9±2.5
BH down the line	32%	−0.2	+1.8	+0.9	+2.5±4.6
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	+1.3	+2.5	+4.9±3.2
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+0.9	+1.7	+3.1±3.6
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+1.1	+2.5	+4.5±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (356 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Sergi Bruguera

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.8±3.8	+3.0	−0.2
BH slice to the middle · rally	+2.7±3.1	+1.9	+0.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.5±4.3	+1.2	+0.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	+1.3±5.1	+2.6	−1.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.3±4.9	+1.8	−0.5
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+1.2±4.6	+0.6	+0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−8.9±6.8	−5.5	−3.4
FH to their forehand · return	−8.5±6.7	−2.4	−6.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	−5.0±6.0	+0.8	−5.9
BH to the middle · rally	−4.9±2.6	−1.5	−3.4
BH to the middle · return	−4.8±3.0	−3.8	−1.0

Marcelo Rios

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+9.3±6.1	+5.0	+4.2
FH to their forehand · return	+4.5±6.2	+2.3	+2.2
BH slice to the middle · return	+4.5±3.3	+0.7	+3.8
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.6±4.9	+0.4	+3.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±3.2	+0.1	+1.9
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.5±3.4	−0.5	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−6.5±2.9	−4.3	−2.2
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.9±5.7	−3.6	−1.3
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.9±4.5	−5.5	+0.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.5±3.6	−2.3	−1.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.4±4.8	−1.0	−2.4

Against Marcelo Rios-like opponents

Sergi Bruguera v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.7%	37.4%
Players most similar to Marcelo Rios	4	53.3%	29.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: David Goffin, Fernando Verdasco, Paul Henri Mathieu, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Gustavo Kuerten, Andre Agassi, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Magnus Norman. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.