Game plan
Steffi Graf v Jana Novotna
Every number combines what Steffi Graf does well with what Jana Novotna allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Steffi Graf's record against Jana Novotna's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.8 on serve, −2.8 on return vs expectation (2873 points); head-to-head: +2.3 on serve, +2.2 on return vs expectation (706 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Steffi | Jana |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.53 ±0.08 better than 100% | +0.23 ±0.18 better than 89% |
| Shot selection | −0.44 ±0.09 better than 13% | −0.64 ±0.34 better than 8% |
| Execution | −0.43 ±0.23 better than 36% | +0.13 ±0.70 better than 67% |
| Points left on the table | 2.61 ±0.12 lower than 52% | 3.55 ±0.47 lower than 1% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Steffi Graf serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Steffi wins | v Jana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 68% | 64% | 66.4%±6.2 | 65% ▲ |
| Body | 14% | 57% | 58% | 57.2%±10.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 36% | 67% | 67% | 65.5%±7.3 | 35% |
Optimal v Jana Novotna: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Steffi wins | v Jana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 57% | 64% | 60% | 58.7%±6.6 | 55% ▼ |
| Body | 13% | 58% | 55% | 57.7%±11.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 30% | 67% | 66% | 68.8%±7.4 | 45% ▲ |
Optimal v Jana Novotna: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Jana Novotna serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Jana wins | v Steffi | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 65% | 63% | 61.8%±7.2 | 59% ▲ |
| Body | 24% | 54% | 55% | 51.0%±9.4 | 24% |
| T | 32% | 62% | 57% | 50.1%±9.7 | 17% ▼ |
Optimal v Steffi Graf: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Jana wins | v Steffi | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 60% | 58% | 52.0%±8.1 | 33% |
| Body | 27% | 44% | 52% | 40.1%±8.9 | 11% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 70% | 62% | 67.7%±7.8 | 56% ▲ |
Optimal v Steffi Graf: +1.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +12.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Steffi Graf returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 36% | +5.3 | +1.6 | +1.7 | +8.6±3.7 |
| FH through the middle | 30% | +4.2 | −4.4 | −1.9 | −2.2±2.7 |
| FH down the line | 13% | +1.5 | −0.7 | +0.4 | +1.2±4.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 12% | −6.7 | +2.6 | +0.6 | −3.5±2.2 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 6% | −6.6 | +2.7 | ±0.0 | −3.9±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +6.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (951 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 41% | −4.2 | +7.1 | +1.6 | +4.5±2.3 |
| BH slice through the middle | 32% | −6.2 | +2.5 | +0.8 | −3.0±2.0 |
| BH slice down the line | 13% | −12.5 | +9.4 | +1.2 | −1.9±3.0 |
| BH through the middle | 3% | +6.0 | −5.6 | −1.1 | −0.6±2.9 |
| FH inside-out | 3% | +7.0 | −4.1 | +0.4 | +3.3±3.9 |
| FH inside-in | 2% | +9.5 | +0.8 | +1.7 | +12.0±4.1 |
Lean FH inside-in: +10.9±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2089 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 45% | +0.5 | +0.8 | +2.2 | +3.5±4.2 |
| FH through the middle | 32% | −3.2 | −6.0 | −2.7 | −11.9±3.0 |
| FH down the line | 23% | −0.6 | +3.6 | +4.5 | +7.5±5.2 |
Lean FH down the line: +8.0±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (350 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 27% | −7.5 | +3.0 | +2.3 | −2.2±2.4 |
| FH inside-out | 23% | +1.4 | +0.5 | +4.5 | +6.4±3.9 |
| FH inside-in | 15% | +0.7 | +4.1 | +2.2 | +7.1±4.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 14% | −11.7 | +2.2 | −1.5 | −11.1±2.1 |
| FH through the middle | 12% | −2.7 | −3.0 | −2.7 | −8.4±2.6 |
Lean FH inside-in: +8.1±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (927 returns charted)
Jana Novotna returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Steffi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice through the middle | 45% | −6.7 | +5.1 | +3.9 | +2.3±2.3 |
| FH through the middle | 15% | +4.2 | −1.6 | −3.5 | −0.9±2.5 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 14% | −6.6 | +2.8 | +0.4 | −3.5±2.8 |
| FH slice down the line | 14% | −10.5 | +4.2 | +6.7 | +0.4±3.3 |
| FH down the line | 6% | +1.5 | −0.5 | +1.5 | +2.5±3.4 |
Lean FH slice through the middle: +1.4±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Steffi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 49% | −6.2 | +2.4 | +3.9 | +0.1±2.0 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 41% | −4.2 | +6.1 | +4.4 | +6.3±2.5 |
| BH slice down the line | 11% | −12.5 | +3.0 | +3.7 | −5.8±3.4 |
Lean BH slice crosscourt: +4.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (217 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Steffi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 30% | +0.5 | +1.4 | +1.9 | +3.8±3.9 |
| FH down the line | 22% | −0.6 | −0.5 | +1.1 | +0.1±4.1 |
| FH through the middle | 22% | −3.2 | −0.8 | −1.8 | −5.8±2.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 12% | −15.2 | +2.2 | +4.1 | −8.8±2.3 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 8% | −14.9 | +2.9 | +1.1 | −10.9±1.8 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +6.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (92 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Steffi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 38% | −7.5 | +0.9 | +5.0 | −1.6±2.7 |
| BH slice through the middle | 34% | −11.7 | +2.1 | +5.7 | −3.9±2.3 |
| BH slice down the line | 15% | −10.6 | +2.4 | +3.8 | −4.4±3.8 |
| FH inside-out | 12% | +1.4 | −3.0 | +1.1 | −0.5±2.9 |
Lean BH slice crosscourt: +1.1±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Steffi Graf
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +10.0±2.7 | +7.4 | +2.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +8.1±2.1 | +4.8 | +3.3 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +5.1±3.4 | +2.8 | +2.4 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +3.4±4.3 | +4.7 | −1.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +3.4±3.3 | +0.3 | +3.1 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.6±2.3 | +0.2 | +1.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · rally | −10.7±2.4 | −5.8 | −4.9 |
| FH to the middle · return | −8.8±2.2 | −5.7 | −3.1 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −7.5±3.0 | −1.6 | −5.9 |
| BH to the middle · return | −5.8±2.8 | −5.6 | −0.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −3.0±2.8 | −0.8 | −2.3 |
Jana Novotna
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | +12.6±2.6 | +6.3 | +6.2 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +11.9±2.8 | +8.6 | +3.3 |
| FH slice to the middle · return | +10.3±2.2 | +5.8 | +4.4 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return +1 | +10.1±2.3 | +5.8 | +4.3 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +9.9±2.3 | +5.1 | +4.8 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +7.6±1.7 | +4.2 | +3.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to the middle · return | −6.0±2.4 | −2.7 | −3.3 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −4.5±3.6 | −0.4 | −4.1 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −3.7±3.3 | −1.5 | −2.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −2.4±2.8 | +0.1 | −2.5 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −2.2±3.4 | −0.5 | −1.6 |
Against Jana Novotna-like opponents
| Steffi Graf v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 60.7% | 46.0% |
| Players most similar to Jana Novotna | 18 | 59.8% | 41.6% |
| Jana Novotna (charted head-to-head) | 5 | 62.4% | 47.0% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Tatjana Maria, Taylor Townsend, Kirsten Flipkens, Francesca Schiavone, Roberta Vinci, Amelie Mauresmo, Conchita Martinez, Gabriela Sabatini, Martina Navratilova. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.