Game plan
Alex Corretja v Marcelo Rios
Every number combines what Alex Corretja does well with what Marcelo Rios allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alex Corretja's record against Marcelo Rios's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −4.8 on serve, −0.8 on return vs expectation (908 points); head-to-head: −0.7 on serve, +9.5 on return vs expectation (322 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Alex | Marcelo |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.07 ±0.11 better than 76% | +0.13 ±0.05 better than 87% |
| Shot selection | −0.16 ±0.18 better than 33% | −0.23 ±0.19 better than 28% |
| Execution | +0.38 ±0.51 better than 82% | −0.40 ±0.62 better than 48% |
| Points left on the table | 2.48 ±0.14 lower than 63% | 2.60 ±0.15 lower than 50% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Alex Corretja serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Alex wins | v Marcelo | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 41% | 68% | 68% | 63.4%±6.7 | 42% |
| Body | 19% | 59% | 66% | 61.4%±10.3 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 74% | 75% | 74.3%±6.5 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Marcelo Rios: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Alex wins | v Marcelo | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 59% | 69% | 72% | 68.4%±6.4 | 72% ▲ |
| Body | 12% | 64% | 66% | 66.9%±9.9 | 13% |
| T | 28% | 67% | 69% | 63.9%±8.2 | 15% ▼ |
Optimal v Marcelo Rios: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Marcelo Rios serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Marcelo wins | v Alex | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 67% | 72% | 66.5%±6.6 | 39% ▼ |
| Body | 6% | 65% | 61% | 62.9%±12.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 48% | 72% | 74% | 71.1%±6.5 | 61% ▲ |
Optimal v Alex Corretja: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Marcelo wins | v Alex | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 62% | 70% | 68% | 65.0%±5.8 | 57% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 65% | 67% | 69.3%±11.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 30% | 75% | 74% | 77.4%±7.6 | 43% ▲ |
Optimal v Alex Corretja: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +8.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Alex Corretja returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Marcelo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 34% | +1.7 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −0.3±4.4 |
| FH through the middle | 32% | +4.3 | −1.2 | −1.0 | +2.0±2.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | +5.5 | −4.7 | +1.5 | +2.2±4.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 12% | −4.2 | −1.3 | −1.0 | −6.5±2.3 |
| FH slice down the line | 3% | −4.3 | −0.5 | −0.9 | −5.7±2.1 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (287 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Marcelo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 25% | −4.2 | +0.8 | +2.0 | −1.4±2.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 22% | +0.5 | +3.0 | +1.9 | +5.3±2.9 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | +6.4 | −1.8 | −1.2 | +3.3±2.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 16% | +8.8 | +2.3 | −0.3 | +10.8±3.4 |
| BH down the line | 10% | +4.2 | −2.1 | −2.5 | −0.4±4.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +8.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (511 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Marcelo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 43% | −1.8 | +1.1 | −5.3 | −5.9±4.7 |
| FH through the middle | 29% | −3.5 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −5.3±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 27% | −0.2 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8±4.1 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Marcelo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 38% | +1.0 | +1.6 | −0.2 | +2.4±3.0 |
| BH through the middle | 24% | −2.9 | +0.1 | +0.9 | −1.9±2.4 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 11% | −4.0 | +1.5 | +0.5 | −2.1±2.6 |
| BH down the line | 8% | −0.2 | −3.0 | −1.5 | −4.7±4.9 |
| FH inside-out | 6% | +1.0 | −0.8 | −5.3 | −5.1±3.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (379 returns charted)
Marcelo Rios returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | +4.3 | −2.6 | +0.8 | +2.4±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 30% | +5.5 | −0.1 | +2.2 | +7.6±4.3 |
| FH down the line | 21% | +1.7 | −3.6 | +2.3 | +0.4±4.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −4.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −4.2±1.8 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.3 | +0.6 | +1.2 | −2.5±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (327 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 33% | +6.4 | −2.5 | +1.4 | +5.3±2.4 |
| BH down the line | 20% | +4.2 | +0.1 | +1.6 | +6.0±4.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 20% | +8.8 | −2.5 | +1.1 | +7.5±3.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 15% | −4.2 | +0.4 | +2.1 | −1.7±2.4 |
| BH slice down the line | 7% | −8.4 | +1.0 | +3.3 | −4.0±3.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (493 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 50% | −0.2 | +1.1 | +2.9 | +3.8±4.2 |
| FH through the middle | 35% | −3.5 | −0.6 | +1.4 | −2.7±2.8 |
| FH down the line | 15% | −1.8 | −0.3 | +1.0 | −1.1±4.5 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (147 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 33% | −2.9 | +1.2 | +0.1 | −1.6±2.2 |
| BH down the line | 32% | −0.2 | +1.8 | +0.1 | +1.6±4.4 |
| BH crosscourt | 26% | +1.0 | +1.3 | +0.6 | +2.9±3.2 |
| FH inside-in | 2% | +0.6 | +0.9 | +2.9 | +4.4±3.6 |
| FH inside-out | 2% | +1.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +3.0±3.1 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (356 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Alex Corretja
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to the middle · return | +4.2±3.0 | +1.1 | +3.1 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +4.2±4.6 | +3.6 | +0.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +4.0±3.9 | +4.1 | −0.1 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +3.9±4.6 | +2.5 | +1.3 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | +3.7±3.0 | +2.9 | +0.8 |
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | +3.7±6.3 | +1.4 | +2.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return | −11.6±6.7 | −5.6 | −6.1 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −7.1±5.9 | −1.3 | −5.9 |
| BH to their forehand · return | −4.3±5.8 | −4.7 | +0.4 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −3.9±2.6 | −0.4 | −3.4 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −3.8±4.8 | −3.3 | −0.5 |
Marcelo Rios
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · return | +5.7±4.8 | −0.4 | +6.1 |
| BH to their forehand · return | +4.9±5.9 | +5.0 | −0.1 |
| BH slice to the middle · return | +4.0±3.4 | +0.7 | +3.3 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +3.7±6.2 | +2.3 | +1.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | +2.0±4.9 | +0.4 | +1.7 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +1.7±3.5 | −0.5 | +2.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | −6.4±4.0 | −5.5 | −0.9 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −5.2±5.6 | −3.6 | −1.6 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −4.8±2.5 | −4.3 | −0.4 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | −4.0±4.2 | +0.7 | −4.7 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −2.9±3.0 | −2.0 | −0.9 |
Against Marcelo Rios-like opponents
| Alex Corretja v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 60.2% | 38.2% |
| Players most similar to Marcelo Rios | 5 | 56.7% | 36.3% |
| Marcelo Rios (charted head-to-head) | 2 | 62.1% | 47.3% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: David Goffin, Fernando Verdasco, Paul Henri Mathieu, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Gustavo Kuerten, Andre Agassi, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Magnus Norman. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.