Game plan

Alexei Popyrin v Miloslav Mecir

Every number combines what Alexei Popyrin does well with what Miloslav Mecir allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexei Popyrin wins, best of 3 75%90%: 51%–91% · best of 5: 80%

Serve points won 62.0% / 56.9% Alexei / Miloslav · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 75%serve 62.0% / 56.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alexei Popyrin's record against Miloslav Mecir's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexei	Miloslav
Direction choice	+0.04 ±0.06 better than 69%	+0.09 ±0.15 better than 80%
Shot selection	+0.29 ±0.15 better than 79%	−0.10 ±0.23 better than 40%
Execution	−0.73 ±0.59 better than 36%	−0.41 ±0.63 better than 48%
Points left on the table	2.71 ±0.10 lower than 39%	2.41 ±0.36 lower than 72%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexei Popyrin serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexei wins	v Miloslav	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	73%	71%	71.1%±6.7	59% ▲
Body	9%	62%	62%	60.2%±12.0	0% ▼
T	45%	78%	72%	75.4%±6.7	41% ▼

Optimal v Miloslav Mecir: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexei wins	v Miloslav	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	76%	73%	76.8%±6.7	44% ▼
Body	5%	63%	62%	61.6%±14.1	0% ▼
T	43%	74%	69%	71.4%±7.7	56% ▲

Optimal v Miloslav Mecir: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Miloslav Mecir serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Miloslav wins	v Alexei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	60%	73%	59.6%±7.2	46%
Body	21%	62%	64%	62.6%±10.4	7% ▼
T	34%	61%	75%	60.5%±8.1	47% ▲

Optimal v Alexei Popyrin: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Miloslav wins	v Alexei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	63%	60%	74%	62.0%±6.4	62%
Body	12%	59%	69%	64.7%±11.9	0% ▼
T	25%	64%	73%	65.6%±8.8	38% ▲

Optimal v Alexei Popyrin: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexei Popyrin returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	+1.5	+1.3	+7.1±2.6
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	+1.8	+0.3	+3.8±4.3
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	+3.3	+4.0	+12.8±4.2
FH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.3	+1.4	−4.1±2.1
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.6	±0.0	−4.8±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.2±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (584 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+1.0	−0.6	+6.8±2.5
BH down the line	20%	+4.2	−1.4	+1.0	+3.9±4.3
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	+0.8	+3.9	+0.5±2.3
BH crosscourt	13%	+8.8	+1.6	+1.0	+11.4±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−3.0	+5.1	+2.6±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.5±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (633 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	−0.9	+0.2	−4.2±2.9
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	+5.2	+4.0	+8.9±4.4
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	−4.1	+1.7	−4.2±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (139 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miloslav	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−4.1	+1.0	−6.0±2.4
BH down the line	21%	−0.2	−1.5	+3.5	+1.8±4.6
BH crosscourt	18%	+1.0	−3.2	−0.8	−3.0±3.2
FH through the middle	10%	−2.9	−2.4	+0.2	−5.1±2.5
FH inside-out	9%	+1.0	−1.3	+1.7	+1.4±3.7

Lean BH down the line: +4.6±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (463 returns charted)

Miloslav Mecir returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexei	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−1.6	+1.7	+4.3±2.7
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+0.7	+1.7	+7.9±4.3
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	−0.3	−4.4	−3.0±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (191 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexei	Value
BH crosscourt	42%	+8.8	+0.5	−0.9	+8.3±3.3
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	−3.0	+0.5	+3.9±2.5
BH down the line	17%	+4.2	+3.5	+1.0	+8.8±4.5

Lean BH down the line: +2.2±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (154 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexei	Value
FH crosscourt	43%	−0.2	−0.6	+1.5	+0.7±4.2
FH through the middle	41%	−3.5	+0.3	+0.3	−2.9±2.6
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	+0.4	−3.4	−4.8±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexei	Value
BH crosscourt	62%	+1.0	+2.6	−2.2	+1.4±2.8
BH through the middle	28%	−2.9	+1.0	−0.4	−2.3±2.3
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	−1.3	+3.2	+1.7±4.7

Lean BH down the line: +1.3±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (159 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alexei Popyrin

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+9.3±5.6	+5.1	+4.2
BH slice to the middle · return	+8.5±3.1	+2.1	+6.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+6.9±3.3	+3.1	+3.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	+3.9±5.1	−1.1	+4.9
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+3.8±3.4	−0.6	+4.4
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+2.7±3.6	−0.2	+2.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.8±5.5	−4.9	+0.1
FH to their backhand · return +1	−3.9±5.5	−0.1	−3.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.4±3.0	−5.0	+1.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.1±3.5	+0.2	−3.3
BH to the middle · rally	−2.1±2.5	−1.2	−0.9

Miloslav Mecir

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	+5.9±4.3	+2.3	+3.6
BH to their forehand · return	+5.4±6.3	+1.3	+4.2
FH to their forehand · return	+3.6±5.9	+1.2	+2.4
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.7±5.4	+3.4	−0.7
FH to the middle · rally	+2.6±2.8	−0.1	+2.8
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.3±3.6	+4.3	−2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−7.4±5.5	−0.9	−6.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.9±4.3	−6.1	+0.2
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.9±5.1	−3.4	−1.5
FH to the middle · serve +1	−4.6±3.6	−5.0	+0.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.3±4.7	−5.1	+0.8

Against Miloslav Mecir-like opponents

Alexei Popyrin v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.9%	33.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Valentin Vacherot, Alex Michelsen, Damir Dzumhur, Paul Henri Mathieu, Jarkko Nieminen, Andre Agassi, Marcelo Rios, Sergi Bruguera, Andrei Chesnokov, Jonas Svensson. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.