Game plan

Daniil Medvedev v Sergi Bruguera

Every number combines what Daniil Medvedev does well with what Sergi Bruguera allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daniil Medvedev wins, best of 3 99%90%: 96%–100% · best of 5: 100%

Serve points won 71.8% / 54.0% Daniil / Sergi · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 98%serve 71.1% / 55.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Daniil Medvedev's record against Sergi Bruguera's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +7.4 on serve, +10.5 on return vs expectation (326 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Daniil	Sergi
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.04 better than 58%	+0.01 ±0.08 better than 60%
Shot selection	−0.06 ±0.04 better than 46%	−0.31 ±0.17 better than 22%
Execution	+1.24 ±0.16 better than 98%	+0.28 ±0.45 better than 79%
Points left on the table	2.31 ±0.06 lower than 84%	2.58 ±0.24 lower than 51%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniil Medvedev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Sergi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	74%	72%	73.3%±4.2	62% ▲
Body	4%	63%	71%	71.1%±7.3	0% ▼
T	46%	78%	73%	76.3%±4.1	38% ▼

Optimal v Sergi Bruguera: +0.2±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Sergi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	78%	69%	74.5%±4.0	40% ▼
Body	5%	60%	64%	61.3%±8.3	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	72%	74.0%±5.0	60% ▲

Optimal v Sergi Bruguera: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sergi Bruguera serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sergi wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	68%	69%	64.2%±4.6	61% ▲
Body	10%	69%	58%	64.3%±8.2	0% ▼
T	42%	67%	71%	62.3%±5.0	39% ▼

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sergi wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	65%	68%	69%	63.7%±4.3	60% ▼
Body	8%	54%	58%	48.7%±9.4	0% ▼
T	27%	70%	70%	67.7%±5.9	40% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniil Medvedev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+1.4	−3.0	+2.6±1.8
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+3.4	+1.3	+10.2±3.1
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.5	−2.9	−1.7±3.3
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	+1.0	−4.2±1.7
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.1	+0.7	−3.7±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (5958 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	+3.1	−1.1	+8.4±1.9
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+2.4	+0.4	+11.6±2.5
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.6	+1.9	+7.7±3.6
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−1.9	+1.7	−4.4±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−4.5	+1.9	−2.0±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (4981 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.5	+1.6	+1.6	−0.2±2.2
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	−1.0	+2.5	+1.2±3.6
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+1.7	+1.7	+1.6±4.0
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	±0.0	−13.5±1.7
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.2	+0.7	+2.0±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: +1.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1558 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.9	+2.9	+0.7	+0.8±1.9
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	+1.9	+0.9	+3.9±2.3
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.2	+2.5	+3.6±4.4
FH through the middle	1%	−2.9	−1.0	+1.6	−2.3±2.4
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	−2.8	+2.5	+0.2±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.7±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (2951 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Sergi Bruguera returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	−0.6	+1.1	−3.8±1.7
FH through the middle	25%	+4.3	−0.8	+1.6	+5.0±2.1
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−3.4	−0.7	−2.5±3.5
FH slice down the line	17%	−4.3	−1.4	−0.7	−6.4±2.8
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−1.6	±0.0	+3.9±3.3

Lean FH through the middle: +6.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (409 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	−2.2	+2.0	+6.2±1.8
BH crosscourt	35%	+8.8	−0.1	+1.0	+9.8±2.5
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−2.3	+1.1	+3.0±3.9
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.6	−4.4±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.0	−2.6	−3.0±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (489 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+2.8	+1.1	+0.5±2.2
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	+1.5	−1.3	±0.0±3.4
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+2.2	−0.3	+0.1±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−12.5	−0.4	−1.1	−14.0±2.5
FH slice down the line	4%	−9.4	+0.3	−1.8	−10.9±2.6

Lean FH through the middle: +1.8±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (135 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+2.0	+0.6	+3.7±2.2
BH through the middle	34%	−2.9	−2.5	+0.4	−4.9±1.8
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−0.8	+1.6	+0.6±4.0
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	+0.2	+1.1	−1.6±1.7
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	+0.2	−0.3	+0.9±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (330 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Daniil Medvedev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+8.1±8.1	+8.4	−0.3
BH to their forehand · return	+6.6±5.1	+2.4	+4.2
FH to their forehand · return	+5.3±4.4	+3.1	+2.2
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+4.4±7.0	+2.5	+1.9
BH to the middle · return	+3.5±2.5	+3.0	+0.5
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+3.4±6.6	−2.5	+5.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.9±4.0	−1.4	−2.4
FH to their backhand · return	−2.7±3.9	+0.1	−2.8
BH slice to the middle · return +1	−2.5±2.3	−4.5	+1.9
BH slice to the middle · rally	−2.1±2.4	−2.7	+0.6
BH slice to their backhand · return	−2.0±3.2	−4.3	+2.3

Sergi Bruguera

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · serve +1	+4.8±2.8	+3.0	+1.8
BH slice to the middle · rally	+3.6±2.4	+1.9	+1.6
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+3.3±3.5	+0.6	+2.7
FH to the middle · return +1	+2.5±2.8	+1.9	+0.6
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.5±4.3	+0.8	+1.7
FH to the middle · rally	+2.2±2.1	+0.6	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−8.4±5.2	−5.5	−2.9
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.7±3.7	−5.3	+0.5
FH to their forehand · return	−4.0±4.9	−2.4	−1.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.7±2.1	−3.5	−0.3
BH to their forehand · return	−3.7±4.9	−4.8	+1.1

Against Sergi Bruguera-like opponents

Daniil Medvedev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.1%	39.4%
Players most similar to Sergi Bruguera	3	73.1%	52.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Roberto Carballes Baena, Paul Henri Mathieu, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Andre Agassi, Guillermo Coria, Albert Costa, Alex Corretja, Marcelo Rios, Magnus Norman, Ivan Lendl. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.