Game plan

Kei Nishikori v Gustavo Kuerten

Every number combines what Kei Nishikori does well with what Gustavo Kuerten allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Kei Nishikori wins, best of 3 56%90%: 41%–70% · best of 5: 57%

Serve points won 64.8% / 63.6% Kei / Gustavo · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 52%serve 64.6% / 64.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Kei Nishikori's record against Gustavo Kuerten's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.2 on serve, +9.9 on return vs expectation (178 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Kei	Gustavo
Direction choice	+0.06 ±0.05 better than 73%	+0.16 ±0.05 better than 89%
Shot selection	−0.30 ±0.07 better than 23%	−0.12 ±0.12 better than 37%
Execution	−0.05 ±0.28 better than 66%	+0.04 ±0.26 better than 71%
Points left on the table	2.29 ±0.07 lower than 85%	2.48 ±0.10 lower than 64%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Kei Nishikori serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kei wins	v Gustavo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	70%	74%	71.2%±3.5	55% ▲
Body	16%	62%	61%	59.9%±7.4	3% ▼
T	42%	73%	73%	71.1%±4.0	42%

Optimal v Gustavo Kuerten: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kei wins	v Gustavo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	70%	71%	68.2%±3.8	60% ▲
Body	17%	63%	70%	69.7%±7.6	4% ▼
T	36%	68%	73%	69.9%±4.4	36%

Optimal v Gustavo Kuerten: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Gustavo Kuerten serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Gustavo wins	v Kei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	78%	71%	75.8%±3.5	33% ▼
Body	5%	62%	65%	63.6%±8.7	0% ▼
T	54%	80%	76%	81.2%±3.1	67% ▲

Optimal v Kei Nishikori: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Gustavo wins	v Kei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	64%	75%	74%	76.0%±3.3	77% ▲
Body	4%	63%	61%	61.7%±9.4	0% ▼
T	32%	77%	74%	78.3%±3.8	23% ▼

Optimal v Kei Nishikori: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Kei Nishikori returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gustavo	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−1.1	−3.1	±0.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.1	−3.0	+3.6±3.4
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	+1.2	−4.1	−1.1±3.7
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+1.6	+1.1	−1.5±2.3
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	+0.4	−0.6	−4.4±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1224 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gustavo	Value
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+1.9	−2.5	+8.1±2.5
BH through the middle	24%	+6.4	−1.0	−3.3	+2.0±2.0
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−1.9	+1.3	−4.9±1.7
BH slice crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+1.4	−1.0	+0.9±2.4
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	−1.3	−0.5	−10.2±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.6±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1117 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gustavo	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+0.4	−0.2	−3.2±2.2
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	−3.1	+0.2	−4.7±4.0
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	+1.0	+0.2	+1.0±3.8
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.3	+2.4	−7.4±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (423 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gustavo	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.0	+2.6	−0.3	+3.3±1.9
BH through the middle	30%	−2.9	−0.7	−0.6	−4.2±1.7
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+2.2	+1.0	+3.0±4.3
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.4	−0.2	−3.4±2.1
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+1.4	+0.2	+2.5±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (845 returns charted)

Gustavo Kuerten returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	−0.9	+0.7	+4.0±1.7
FH down the line	26%	+1.7	−2.1	+2.3	+1.8±3.2
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−3.7	+0.1	+2.0±3.3
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+0.6	+1.4	−2.2±2.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.3	+1.0	−2.0±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1134 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
BH through the middle	28%	+6.4	−0.6	+0.7	+6.5±1.7
BH crosscourt	23%	+8.8	−2.6	+1.8	+7.9±2.5
BH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	−1.4	±0.0	−5.5±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	10%	+0.5	−3.7	+0.7	−2.5±2.6
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−1.5	+2.0	+4.6±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1292 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	+0.4	−0.3	−3.4±2.3
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	−1.2	−0.4	−1.8±3.8
FH down the line	29%	−1.8	−0.7	+1.7	−0.8±4.2
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.4	+1.1	+1.6±1.3

Lean FH down the line: +1.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (377 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kei	Value
BH through the middle	41%	−2.9	+0.9	+1.1	−0.9±1.5
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.0	+0.9	+1.3	+3.3±1.9
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	−1.4	−0.5	−2.2±4.1
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	±0.0	−0.3	−3.2±2.1
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	−1.5	+1.7	+1.1±3.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1272 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Kei Nishikori

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+5.0±4.0	+2.0	+3.1
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.5±5.3	+3.6	+0.9
BH slice to their backhand · return	+4.3±2.9	+2.7	+1.6
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+3.5±7.8	+4.1	−0.6
FH slice to the middle · return	+2.2±3.2	+0.1	+2.1
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+2.1±8.3	−3.7	+5.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−4.9±3.7	−3.1	−1.7
FH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.7±5.3	−0.6	−4.1
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−4.6±8.2	−4.2	−0.4
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.5±2.7	−0.9	−3.6
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.3±2.3	−1.0	−3.3

Gustavo Kuerten

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to the middle · return	+2.6±3.2	+0.7	+1.9
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+1.9±7.9	±0.0	+1.9
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+1.8±3.1	+2.1	−0.3
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+0.4±8.5	+6.2	−5.7
BH to their backhand · return +1	+0.4±2.9	+0.8	−0.4
FH to their forehand · return +1	+0.4±3.8	−3.3	+3.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.5±3.4	−1.8	−4.7
FH to their forehand · return	−4.0±4.0	−4.4	+0.4
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.0±4.7	−0.6	−3.4
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−3.7±4.3	−3.4	−0.3
BH to their forehand · return	−3.6±4.3	−4.0	+0.4

Against Gustavo Kuerten-like opponents

Kei Nishikori v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.9%	37.6%
Players most similar to Gustavo Kuerten	1	68.4%	50.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Flavio Cobolli, Sebastian Korda, David Goffin, Paul Henri Mathieu, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Marat Safin, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Wayne Ferreira, Marcelo Rios. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.